{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8130899-2fbf-4043-a4d0-154ef9a24abd", "symbol": "CGSD", "name": "CAPITAL GROUP FIXED INCOME ETF TR SHORT DURATION INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.046, "architecture_energy": 7.219, "architecture_maturity": 27.639, "architecture_confidence": 68.134, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.21, "rotation_up": 25.54, "upward_expansion": 20.08, "deceleration": 32.66, "rotation_down": 32.41, "downward_expansion": 56.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.64476, 25.63887, 25.643618, 25.646082 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.7, "trend_reference": 25.649782, "distance_from_trend": 0.001958, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.222949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.351387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 6.7e-05, "excess_performance": -0.125557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001958, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002314, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103514, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003432, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 6.7e-05, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.303885, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3547932, "relative_activity": 1.665893, "balance": 1.303885, "dry_up": 1.2468, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003676, "annualized_volatility": 0.017784, "from_high_reference": -0.003207, "from_low_reference": 0.027055 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.649782, "fair_value_reference": 24.222949, "structural_low": 25.466205, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001199, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.002389, "worst_return": -0.000583, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.279199, "energy": 21.377154, "activity_lines": [ 25.665228, 25.656251, 25.654825, 25.648267 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 25.621571, "volume": 2177754, "typical_volume": 2179719.75, "trend": 25.626795, "fair_value": 24.08732, "relative_strength": -6.910242, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.444085, "energy": 8.977084, "activity_lines": [ 25.653394, 25.648399, 25.650969, 25.648323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 25.62845, "volume": 2049480, "typical_volume": 2135218.8, "trend": 25.633447, "fair_value": 24.110728, "relative_strength": -8.592063, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.384178, "energy": 1.993364, "activity_lines": [ 25.642559, 25.643918, 25.648134, 25.64843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.608537, "volume": 2124089, "typical_volume": 2095565.55, "trend": 25.63813, "fair_value": 24.133081, "relative_strength": -9.600626, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.489736, "energy": 16.239095, "activity_lines": [ 25.629405, 25.63799, 25.643875, 25.646823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.648364, "volume": 2027249, "typical_volume": 2114391.65, "trend": 25.642184, "fair_value": 24.155802, "relative_strength": -7.773821, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.388577, "energy": 11.421174, "activity_lines": [ 25.631186, 25.63973, 25.643977, 25.647483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.56871, "volume": 2389976, "typical_volume": 2112477.6, "trend": 25.642575, "fair_value": 24.178124, "relative_strength": -7.2828, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.647096, "energy": 30.898047, "activity_lines": [ 25.609406, 25.62723, 25.637086, 25.642743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.64, "volume": 2656322, "typical_volume": 2056697.15, "trend": 25.64567, "fair_value": 24.200359, "relative_strength": -7.729909, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.496865, "energy": 31.244078, "activity_lines": [ 25.617697, 25.62794, 25.637579, 25.642577 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.7, "volume": 3547932, "typical_volume": 2129747.2, "trend": 25.649782, "fair_value": 24.222949, "relative_strength": -10.351387, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.045946, "energy": 7.219177, "activity_lines": [ 25.64476, 25.63887, 25.643618, 25.646082 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }