{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e81626d3-f7e0-4aac-b0be-78ead93a91da",
    "symbol": "SPXS",
    "name": "Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.782,
    "architecture_energy": 62.429,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.499,
    "architecture_confidence": 51.538,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.84,
        "rotation_up": 51.13,
        "upward_expansion": 78.56,
        "deceleration": 71.51,
        "rotation_down": 27.6,
        "downward_expansion": 9.9
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.166533,
        15.085236,
        14.941143,
        14.646727
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 15.556,
    "trend_reference": 14.307467,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.087264,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 861.051767,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.981934,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -97.154041,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.131675,
    "excess_performance": 0.048791,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.087264,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.948873,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.981934,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002177,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.97154,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010411,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.131675,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.667884,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2726778,
      "relative_activity": 2.11338,
      "balance": 1.667884,
      "dry_up": 1.704351,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018415,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.131732,
      "from_high_reference": -0.988701,
      "from_low_reference": 0.220078
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.307467,
      "fair_value_reference": 861.051767,
      "structural_low": 12.75,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.012514,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022258,
        "regime_survival": 0.111111,
        "best_return": 0.069032,
        "worst_return": -0.045366,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.040376,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013077,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.119948,
        "worst_return": -0.089609,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.131121,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.069536,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.155278,
        "worst_return": 0.032223,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.121527,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.034519,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.311286,
        "worst_return": -0.155081,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011605,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012146,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.090314,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.05143,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.074173,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.068431,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.122558,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017434,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.042628,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.08752,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.115272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.018487,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006645,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.037343,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 8224.8,
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      },
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 1256289.45,
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        "fair_value": 877.575895,
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        "stage": 1,
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        "direction": 39.033776,
        "energy": 58.661822,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 14.944,
        "volume": 2105971,
        "typical_volume": 1288425.75,
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        "fair_value": 871.999254,
        "relative_strength": -97.49525,
        "stage": 1,
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        "energy": 56.142289,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.936,
        "volume": 2610328,
        "typical_volume": 1293343.35,
        "trend": 14.250467,
        "fair_value": 866.489228,
        "relative_strength": -97.371165,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.854772,
        "energy": 52.438911,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.986267,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 15.556,
        "volume": 2726778,
        "typical_volume": 1290244.8,
        "trend": 14.307467,
        "fair_value": 861.051767,
        "relative_strength": -97.154041,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.781557,
        "energy": 62.428541,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.166533,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}