{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e81978a5-f0f2-4b6f-b1a9-a69909ca1200", "symbol": "688136", "name": "Kexing Biopharm Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.257, "architecture_energy": 51.069, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.36, "rotation_up": 25.83, "upward_expansion": 8.03, "deceleration": 51.84, "rotation_down": 49.91, "downward_expansion": 79.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.936667, 19.242955, 20.766045, 22.820006 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.290001, "trend_reference": 25.805545, "distance_from_trend": -0.213735, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.106809, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191853, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.543741, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.376651, "excess_performance": -0.333447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213735, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163194, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191853, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345437, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06126, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.376651, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.236936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22462496, "relative_activity": 0.953559, "balance": 0.236936, "dry_up": 1.144161, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130064, "annualized_volatility": 0.580759, "from_high_reference": -0.631359, "from_low_reference": 0.193529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.805545, "fair_value_reference": 25.106809, "structural_low": 17.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.030609, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.016109, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.267049, "worst_return": -0.224404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.109213, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.080473, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.338494, "worst_return": -0.229435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.150341, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.133123, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.667624, "worst_return": -0.33868, 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20.357924, 22.869975, 24.956728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 37963099, "typical_volume": 22163963.45, "trend": 27.164545, "fair_value": 25.108371, "relative_strength": -39.59776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.991871, "energy": 44.435467, "activity_lines": [ 20.158, 20.021282, 22.312897, 24.413273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.35, "volume": 27381604, "typical_volume": 22870087.4, "trend": 26.666212, "fair_value": 25.100287, "relative_strength": -44.778234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.473169, "energy": 50.392064, "activity_lines": [ 19.337334, 19.448672, 21.634057, 23.780077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.68, "volume": 20002476, "typical_volume": 23374795.0, "trend": 26.184879, "fair_value": 25.094638, "relative_strength": -42.815865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.603896, "energy": 57.247476, "activity_lines": [ 18.689334, 19.064173, 21.047646, 23.200321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.290001, "volume": 22462496, "typical_volume": 23556494.9, "trend": 25.805545, "fair_value": 25.106809, "relative_strength": -34.543741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.256975, "energy": 51.069078, "activity_lines": [ 18.936667, 19.242955, 20.766045, 22.820006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }