{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e819f541-1b91-4295-addd-2ed5904dec24", "symbol": "TBF", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST SHORT 20+ YR TREASURY USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.978, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.016, "architecture_energy": 77.977, "architecture_maturity": 7.122, "architecture_confidence": 62.587, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.86, "rotation_up": 80.77, "upward_expansion": 95.72, "deceleration": 39.03, "rotation_down": 8.59, "downward_expansion": 17.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.182, 24.859835, 24.652627, 24.502736 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.24, "trend_reference": 24.291949, "distance_from_trend": 0.039027, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.008032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097008, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.304716, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053514, "excess_performance": -0.072111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039027, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013195, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024967, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036145, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053514, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.836388, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 618295, "relative_activity": 0.657396, "balance": 0.836388, "dry_up": 0.836614, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018724, "annualized_volatility": 0.09538, "from_high_reference": -0.013484, "from_low_reference": 0.111169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.291949, "fair_value_reference": 23.008032, "structural_low": 23.151019, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.004956, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.005201, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.113522, "worst_return": -0.122204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003875, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.018803, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.172434, "worst_return": -0.064586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039578, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.054368, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.16129, "worst_return": -0.003887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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22.919324, "relative_strength": -5.177967, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.634437, "energy": 32.949211, "activity_lines": [ 24.508133, 24.438706, 24.405217, 24.293045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.12, "volume": 1219137, "typical_volume": 982527.2, "trend": 24.198143, "fair_value": 22.951182, "relative_strength": -2.939914, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.848808, "energy": 66.997605, "activity_lines": [ 24.758667, 24.556318, 24.478569, 24.355254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.49, "volume": 616367, "typical_volume": 975936.55, "trend": 24.245892, "fair_value": 22.981272, "relative_strength": -2.338225, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.284399, "energy": 80.456666, "activity_lines": [ 25.063667, 24.738138, 24.580439, 24.4386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.24, "volume": 618295, "typical_volume": 940520.85, "trend": 24.291949, "fair_value": 23.008032, "relative_strength": -6.304716, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.016297, "energy": 77.9775, "activity_lines": [ 25.182, 24.859835, 24.652627, 24.502736 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }