{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e81a0278-7a90-48b5-9f9b-5396436237a1", "symbol": "PLAY", "name": "iShares Digital Entertainment and Education UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.407, "architecture_energy": 42.194, "architecture_maturity": 68.989, "architecture_confidence": 88.504, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.3, "rotation_up": 39.65, "upward_expansion": 65.04, "deceleration": 85.47, "rotation_down": 27.84, "downward_expansion": 24.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.350267, 10.398927, 10.155871, 9.708905 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.54, "trend_reference": 9.1663, "distance_from_trend": 0.149864, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.644219, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37882, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.31438, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.352062, "excess_performance": 0.300827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.149864, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073555, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.37882, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068389, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.083144, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006949, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.352062, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.80685, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16828, "relative_activity": 0.354677, "balance": 1.80685, "dry_up": 1.030302, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03952, "annualized_volatility": 0.235917, "from_high_reference": -0.019717, "from_low_reference": 0.38593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.1663, "fair_value_reference": 7.644219, "structural_low": 7.605, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.022987, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074423, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005413, "worst_return": -0.051387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.053953, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.1174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.053953, "worst_return": -0.053953, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.221343, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.13608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.221343, "worst_return": 0.221343, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014453, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007911, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027738, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139119, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119516, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-12", "close": 5.492, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-19", "close": 5.4635, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.346986, "energy": 69.740492, "activity_lines": [ 10.573333, 10.423645, 9.816129, 9.374045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.254, "volume": 44652, "typical_volume": 45323.1, "trend": 8.974033, "fair_value": 7.583398, "relative_strength": 8.432319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.611423, "energy": 62.335283, "activity_lines": [ 10.4864, 10.422627, 9.911552, 9.460742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.384, "volume": 13830, "typical_volume": 41059.85, "trend": 9.043767, "fair_value": 7.604455, "relative_strength": 8.341374, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.402762, "energy": 59.690904, "activity_lines": [ 10.4436, 10.434145, 10.009824, 9.551708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.037, "volume": 120225, "typical_volume": 46933.25, "trend": 9.096667, "fair_value": 7.622608, "relative_strength": 3.497687, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.891133, "energy": 43.993103, "activity_lines": [ 10.3054, 10.371236, 10.06386, 9.615787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.54, "volume": 16828, "typical_volume": 47446.05, "trend": 9.1663, "fair_value": 7.644219, "relative_strength": 8.31438, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.406679, "energy": 42.194464, "activity_lines": [ 10.350267, 10.398927, 10.155871, 9.708905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }