{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e81d8e89-c57e-4159-9316-f405d5412fed",
    "symbol": "ASWE",
    "name": "Saturna Al-Kawthar Global Focused Equity UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 91.676,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 55.311,
    "architecture_energy": 29.978,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.127,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.04,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.72,
        "rotation_up": 30.86,
        "upward_expansion": 59.3,
        "deceleration": 88.32,
        "rotation_down": 28.73,
        "downward_expansion": 20.64
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        10.387333,
        10.439855,
        10.357905,
        10.153344
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 10.658,
    "trend_reference": 9.899833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.076584,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 8.586808,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241206,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.710585,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.135521,
    "excess_performance": 0.070881,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076584,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041123,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.241206,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00275,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027106,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.087682,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.135521,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.129089,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7479,
      "relative_activity": 0.696816,
      "balance": 1.129089,
      "dry_up": 1.467377,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.026019,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.143558,
      "from_high_reference": -0.008004,
      "from_low_reference": 0.220009
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 9.899833,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.586808,
      "structural_low": 8.876,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.000474,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007452,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.049224,
        "worst_return": -0.024982,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.030055,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.041871,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.061187,
        "worst_return": -0.01464,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.161131,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.09201,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.161149,
        "worst_return": 0.08835,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.133188,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.108209,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.178613,
        "worst_return": 0.087763,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.065637,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.011668,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.093576,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.171334,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.022398,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.022746,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.039575,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.04534,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.008075,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005211,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.045897,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.035026,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047778,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 5686.2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 68.377777,
        "energy": 70.80536,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 9470.35,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "trend": 9.452967,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 72.576308,
        "energy": 83.504423,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 9840.1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 9300.95,
        "trend": 9.547867,
        "fair_value": 8.38384,
        "relative_strength": 9.735463,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 8823.7,
        "trend": 9.580033,
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        "relative_strength": 8.878321,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 9.664633,
        "fair_value": 8.451449,
        "relative_strength": 10.326134,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 74.277558,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 1296,
        "typical_volume": 9809.2,
        "trend": 9.709433,
        "fair_value": 8.476071,
        "relative_strength": 6.775262,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 82.718276,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 7914,
        "typical_volume": 9998.55,
        "trend": 9.755833,
        "fair_value": 8.499654,
        "relative_strength": 8.079545,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.401722,
        "energy": 79.307775,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.605067,
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          10.018314
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 10.242,
        "volume": 39782,
        "typical_volume": 11651.9,
        "trend": 9.792133,
        "fair_value": 8.520455,
        "relative_strength": 5.245532,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.673571,
        "energy": 52.405518,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.4972,
          10.482764,
          10.264567,
          10.04968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 10.254,
        "volume": 7065,
        "typical_volume": 11378.45,
        "trend": 9.8272,
        "fair_value": 8.541237,
        "relative_strength": 3.983907,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.038637,
        "energy": 38.175429,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.399467,
          10.447273,
          10.289457,
          10.079477
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 10.172,
        "volume": 8672,
        "typical_volume": 11562.65,
        "trend": 9.857867,
        "fair_value": 8.562487,
        "relative_strength": 0.867449,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.878774,
        "energy": 25.900613,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.299333,
          10.398291,
          10.302529,
          10.101723
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.658,
        "volume": 7479,
        "typical_volume": 10733.1,
        "trend": 9.899833,
        "fair_value": 8.586808,
        "relative_strength": 2.710585,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.310946,
        "energy": 29.977976,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.387333,
          10.439855,
          10.357905,
          10.153344
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}