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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.635, "architecture_energy": 88.131, "architecture_maturity": 32.651, "architecture_confidence": 77.564, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 80.4, "upward_expansion": 97.92, "deceleration": 40.41, "rotation_down": 14.08, "downward_expansion": 19.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.623407, 124.262391, 121.496255, 119.455877 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 127.1555, "trend_reference": 117.3962, "distance_from_trend": 0.083131, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.644678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238793, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.282974, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088728, "excess_performance": -0.036897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083131, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036925, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238793, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061877, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046222, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088728, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.111274, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7505, "relative_activity": 0.733935, "balance": 5.111274, "dry_up": 0.784152, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018622, "annualized_volatility": 0.129195, "from_high_reference": -0.001919, "from_low_reference": 0.221511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.3962, "fair_value_reference": 102.644678, "structural_low": 107.12, 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"direction": 78.005393, "energy": 88.427462, "activity_lines": [ 122.55572, 120.784385, 118.323314, 117.108864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 123.9846, "volume": 8718, "typical_volume": 10873.75, "trend": 116.064553, "fair_value": 101.881346, "relative_strength": 1.116429, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.933305, "energy": 89.504449, "activity_lines": [ 123.273727, 121.622538, 119.050418, 117.647192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 124.4729, "volume": 12753, "typical_volume": 10896.25, "trend": 116.47405, "fair_value": 102.121022, "relative_strength": 2.136861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.244683, "energy": 87.883589, "activity_lines": [ 123.92164, 122.426095, 119.795346, 118.189666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 125.8973, "volume": 3098, "typical_volume": 10358.3, "trend": 116.95248, "fair_value": 102.377743, "relative_strength": 2.181065, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.978206, "energy": 86.378551, "activity_lines": [ 124.673487, 123.312331, 120.62268, 118.797617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.1555, "volume": 7505, "typical_volume": 10225.7, "trend": 117.3962, "fair_value": 102.644678, "relative_strength": -0.282974, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.635429, "energy": 88.13138, "activity_lines": [ 125.623407, 124.262391, 121.496255, 119.455877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }