{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8204fae-49db-49a6-bfce-84dc182b8c6e", "symbol": "ICMB", "name": "Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.953, "architecture_energy": 85.931, "architecture_maturity": 67.548, "architecture_confidence": 95.749, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 24.58, "upward_expansion": 21.24, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 64.0, "downward_expansion": 96.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.815487, 0.906287, 1.126156, 1.381944 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.837, "trend_reference": 1.786283, "distance_from_trend": -0.531429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.401549, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.651475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -67.163161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.70424, "excess_performance": -0.891694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.531429, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.651475, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322838, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.671632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.70424, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.564419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 253249, "relative_activity": 0.658501, "balance": 0.564419, "dry_up": 0.712327, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211681, "annualized_volatility": 0.926777, "from_high_reference": -0.731731, "from_low_reference": 0.145477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.786283, "fair_value_reference": 2.401549, "structural_low": 0.7307, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.031752, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.023963, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.100394, "worst_return": -0.276695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028076, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.010817, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.112045, "worst_return": -0.381443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023136, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015338, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.060124, "worst_return": -0.112362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.360146, "energy": 88.611747, "activity_lines": [ 0.963313, 1.07214, 1.312863, 1.598463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.78, "volume": 206944, "typical_volume": 419302.75, "trend": 1.91438, "fair_value": 2.424969, "relative_strength": -68.800842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.932485, "energy": 91.642101, "activity_lines": [ 0.881473, 1.002365, 1.240761, 1.521148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7701, "volume": 107120, "typical_volume": 395699.15, "trend": 1.850383, "fair_value": 2.413694, "relative_strength": -68.782568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.184281, "energy": 90.004908, "activity_lines": [ 0.823, 0.942609, 1.177383, 1.447324 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.837, "volume": 253249, "typical_volume": 384584.35, "trend": 1.786283, "fair_value": 2.401549, "relative_strength": -67.163161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.953376, "energy": 85.93098, "activity_lines": [ 0.815487, 0.906287, 1.126156, 1.381944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }