{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e82721ad-4485-4269-8d33-e867b6a9ba14", "symbol": "600610", "name": "Guizhou Zhongyida Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.819, "architecture_energy": 52.295, "architecture_maturity": 95.896, "architecture_confidence": 86.985, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 27.9, "upward_expansion": 13.61, "deceleration": 60.57, "rotation_down": 49.98, "downward_expansion": 77.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.701333, 6.713818, 7.442429, 8.138387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.03, "trend_reference": 9.097333, "distance_from_trend": -0.227246, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.257051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148606, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.214292, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.464177, "excess_performance": -0.420973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227246, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120266, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148606, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391148, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.302143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125073, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.464177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.401564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78323008, "relative_activity": 0.794983, "balance": 0.401564, "dry_up": 0.932154, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122442, "annualized_volatility": 0.539068, "from_high_reference": -0.514503, "from_low_reference": 0.17953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.097333, "fair_value_reference": 8.257051, "structural_low": 5.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.029192, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002639, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.329513, "worst_return": -0.356243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.176829, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.186929, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.295699, "worst_return": -0.349074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039146, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.098517, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.363128, "worst_return": -0.469373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.19, "volume": 71006641, "typical_volume": 121979311.55, "trend": 9.412667, "fair_value": 8.326667, "relative_strength": -38.410531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.844726, "energy": 85.060543, "activity_lines": [ 6.437333, 6.955455, 7.908762, 8.630237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.36, "volume": 127690507, "typical_volume": 116845265.4, "trend": 9.297, "fair_value": 8.299679, "relative_strength": -36.476677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.021651, "energy": 66.248825, "activity_lines": [ 6.366667, 6.744364, 7.69381, 8.43329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.89, "volume": 90328999, "typical_volume": 111435524.35, "trend": 9.194, "fair_value": 8.28109, "relative_strength": -30.559106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.804184, "energy": 57.457611, "activity_lines": [ 6.520667, 6.7, 7.552238, 8.278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.03, "volume": 78323008, "typical_volume": 98521613.65, "trend": 9.097333, "fair_value": 8.257051, "relative_strength": -30.214292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.819489, "energy": 52.295329, "activity_lines": [ 6.701333, 6.713818, 7.442429, 8.138387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }