{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e82a7434-361e-4217-86bc-6eb64291be3e", "symbol": "ARA", "name": "Aclara Resources Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.615, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.815, "architecture_energy": 28.624, "architecture_maturity": 5.628, "architecture_confidence": 43.274, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.55, "rotation_up": 16.23, "upward_expansion": 18.62, "deceleration": 55.6, "rotation_down": 56.87, "downward_expansion": 45.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.73, 3.829273, 4.026762, 3.932043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.98, "trend_reference": 3.807333, "distance_from_trend": 0.045351, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.442058, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.759945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.246233, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.177515, "excess_performance": 0.057094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045351, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158888, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.759945, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.585166, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.122462, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.735525, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177515, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725072, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 329900, "relative_activity": 0.602761, "balance": 0.725072, "dry_up": 0.750391, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134519, "annualized_volatility": 0.626785, "from_high_reference": -0.262963, "from_low_reference": 1.905109 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.807333, "fair_value_reference": 1.442058, "structural_low": 2.685, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.020617, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002761, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054054, "worst_return": -0.012821, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.108108, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.137602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108108, "worst_return": 0.108108, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.378378, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.322577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.378378, "worst_return": 0.378378, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.405405, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.293056, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.405405, "worst_return": 0.405405, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.270588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072165, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.236111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.540323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.226804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126005, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.385, "volume": 716300, "typical_volume": 340665.0, "trend": 0.449767, "fair_value": 0.562787, "relative_strength": -2.023186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.50009, 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"trend": 3.672333, "fair_value": 1.37834, "relative_strength": 5.076459, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.014605, "energy": 17.215341, "activity_lines": [ 3.817333, 4.026, 4.097381, 3.932731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.55, "volume": 288600, "typical_volume": 577340.0, "trend": 3.716667, "fair_value": 1.398404, "relative_strength": 5.309477, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.607167, "energy": 26.806368, "activity_lines": [ 3.678, 3.914545, 4.061048, 3.924839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.61, "volume": 556000, "typical_volume": 573890.0, "trend": 3.761667, "fair_value": 1.419045, "relative_strength": 6.341622, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.681379, "energy": 33.290631, "activity_lines": [ 3.629333, 3.831455, 4.027381, 3.917957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.98, "volume": 329900, "typical_volume": 547315.0, "trend": 3.807333, "fair_value": 1.442058, "relative_strength": 12.246233, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.815062, "energy": 28.624421, "activity_lines": [ 3.73, 3.829273, 4.026762, 3.932043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }