{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e82e1e5c-f465-4289-abe9-9430a77f348c", "symbol": "0052", "name": "Fubon Taiwan Technology Tracker Fund", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.044, "architecture_energy": 28.123, "architecture_maturity": 71.744, "architecture_confidence": 76.158, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.63, "rotation_up": 26.49, "upward_expansion": 58.26, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.84, "downward_expansion": 21.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.740001, 60.388182, 59.119777, 56.125937 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 60.200001, "trend_reference": 51.927795, "distance_from_trend": 0.159302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 138.615815, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.565706, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -60.3262, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.425082, "excess_performance": 0.04577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159302, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198208, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.565706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034159, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.603262, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128353, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.425082, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.776863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129600957, "relative_activity": 0.857174, "balance": 1.776863, "dry_up": 1.057435, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055776, "annualized_volatility": 0.311352, "from_high_reference": -0.764679, "from_low_reference": 0.775258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.927795, "fair_value_reference": 138.615815, "structural_low": 41.08169, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.048815, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.01332, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.101695, "worst_return": -0.021983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.094448, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.046726, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.34215, "worst_return": -0.15339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.135593, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.088511, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.335551, "worst_return": -0.2423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.133604, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.078804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.516643, "worst_return": -0.174634, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02026, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081959, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02623, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082851, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.197879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030738, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181223, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", 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"typical_volume": 153071777.45, "trend": 51.182177, "fair_value": 138.9779, "relative_strength": -61.166449, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.745167, "energy": 33.827949, "activity_lines": [ 59.850001, 60.5, 58.673217, 55.544142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.200001, "volume": 129600957, "typical_volume": 151195595.5, "trend": 51.927795, "fair_value": 138.615815, "relative_strength": -60.3262, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.044135, "energy": 28.123286, "activity_lines": [ 59.740001, 60.388182, 59.119777, 56.125937 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }