{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e83158b6-15ff-4b52-ba09-ca43cf70012d", "symbol": "NICK", "name": "WisdomTree Nickel", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 71.259, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.255, "architecture_energy": 31.347, "architecture_maturity": 20.245, "architecture_confidence": 61.407, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.56, "rotation_up": 20.66, "upward_expansion": 14.82, "deceleration": 65.1, "rotation_down": 44.53, "downward_expansion": 64.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.968533, 12.9556, 13.290629, 13.318323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.786, "trend_reference": 13.3236, "distance_from_trend": -0.040349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.594436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.896814, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005031, "excess_performance": -0.165861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040349, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059468, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064165, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128968, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005031, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.456147, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35937, "relative_activity": 0.416331, "balance": 0.456147, "dry_up": 0.272098, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035844, "annualized_volatility": 0.188388, "from_high_reference": -0.140841, "from_low_reference": 0.196071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.3236, "fair_value_reference": 13.594436, "structural_low": 12.382, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0322, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.013903, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.094548, "worst_return": -0.196377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002831, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103699, "worst_return": -0.167371, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.085094, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.109165, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.884166, "worst_return": -0.095911, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 13.162933, "fair_value": 13.747372, "relative_strength": -15.085347, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.987883, "energy": 45.630792, "activity_lines": [ 12.944, 13.401055, 13.519686, 13.419411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.744, "volume": 44116, "typical_volume": 101704.5, "trend": 13.2218, "fair_value": 13.715295, "relative_strength": -12.261375, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.798374, "energy": 54.972133, "activity_lines": [ 12.7908, 13.2264, 13.452314, 13.392383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.924, "volume": 27447, "typical_volume": 95379.1, "trend": 13.2806, "fair_value": 13.686654, "relative_strength": -9.52063, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.367323, "energy": 57.91987, "activity_lines": [ 12.783467, 13.116618, 13.40319, 13.37317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.274, "volume": 16133, "typical_volume": 93787.85, "trend": 13.331267, "fair_value": 13.652154, "relative_strength": -6.746366, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.552342, "energy": 47.3365, "activity_lines": [ 12.927333, 13.091018, 13.388762, 13.372744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.046, "volume": 14431, "typical_volume": 89372.1, "trend": 13.344267, "fair_value": 13.622474, "relative_strength": -8.749464, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.3326, "energy": 24.794771, "activity_lines": [ 13.000533, 13.035782, 13.35159, 13.35434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.786, "volume": 35937, "typical_volume": 86318.3, "trend": 13.3236, "fair_value": 13.594436, "relative_strength": -12.896814, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.254787, "energy": 31.347083, "activity_lines": [ 12.968533, 12.9556, 13.290629, 13.318323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }