{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e832f864-f755-4902-af50-8bccdd2a4e1c", "symbol": "XX25", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China A UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.253, "architecture_energy": 21.678, "architecture_maturity": 62.871, "architecture_confidence": 73.737, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.49, "rotation_up": 18.38, "upward_expansion": 43.49, "deceleration": 85.15, "rotation_down": 45.84, "downward_expansion": 35.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.550333, 36.017, 36.098333, 35.752774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.119999, "trend_reference": 35.294667, "distance_from_trend": 0.023384, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.731462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.028068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063761, "excess_performance": -0.107131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023384, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257158, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050434, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090281, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092759, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063761, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.72932, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23082, "relative_activity": 2.619591, "balance": 2.72932, "dry_up": 1.320861, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031168, "annualized_volatility": 0.164165, "from_high_reference": -0.043306, "from_low_reference": 0.240172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.294667, "fair_value_reference": 28.731462, "structural_low": 32.48, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.019631, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.001865, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.309439, "worst_return": -0.114646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016474, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.053988, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.084965, "worst_return": -0.088823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025175, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081379, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.177486, "worst_return": -0.096935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 34.555, "volume": 7463, "typical_volume": 8728.95, "trend": 35.129167, "fair_value": 28.553513, "relative_strength": -10.092716, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.623743, "energy": 17.178935, "activity_lines": [ 36.282001, 36.483728, 36.117072, 35.681366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.549999, "volume": 11577, "typical_volume": 8604.3, "trend": 35.210834, "fair_value": 28.60784, "relative_strength": -7.313693, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.386327, "energy": 21.590409, "activity_lines": [ 35.879334, 36.306637, 36.112381, 35.708516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.029999, "volume": 4432, "typical_volume": 8313.5, "trend": 35.253167, "fair_value": 28.662038, "relative_strength": -9.216087, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.76301, "energy": 21.961779, "activity_lines": [ 35.447666, 36.051909, 36.053095, 35.69685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.119999, "volume": 23082, "typical_volume": 8811.3, "trend": 35.294667, "fair_value": 28.731462, "relative_strength": -9.028068, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.252716, "energy": 21.678154, "activity_lines": [ 35.550333, 36.017, 36.098333, 35.752774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }