{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8358831-4b17-4f15-93b5-7959dd4d4e08", "symbol": "600308", "name": "Shandong Huatai Paper Industry Shareholding Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.274, "architecture_energy": 46.262, "architecture_maturity": 73.746, "architecture_confidence": 63.192, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.49, "rotation_up": 26.82, "upward_expansion": 19.71, "deceleration": 66.48, "rotation_down": 41.27, "downward_expansion": 67.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.188, 3.179091, 3.343762, 3.498731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.18, "trend_reference": 3.686333, "distance_from_trend": -0.137354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.550671, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.939626, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.244656, "excess_performance": -0.201452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062002, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104395, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139396, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096414, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244656, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.194205, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37714870, "relative_activity": 0.664262, "balance": 0.194205, "dry_up": 0.78325, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059507, "annualized_volatility": 0.280879, "from_high_reference": -0.313175, "from_low_reference": 0.06 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.686333, "fair_value_reference": 3.550671, "structural_low": 3.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.010668, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.011381, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.173203, "worst_return": -0.087209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045897, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.016689, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.166134, "worst_return": -0.054329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001245, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060774, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.089457, "worst_return": -0.081551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054496, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017595, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", 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"fair_value": 3.558096, "relative_strength": -13.660834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.752243, "energy": 64.191168, "activity_lines": [ 3.149333, 3.192909, 3.408476, 3.564215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.25, "volume": 37322642, "typical_volume": 59915258.95, "trend": 3.710333, "fair_value": 3.554734, "relative_strength": -9.907287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.941177, "energy": 53.991908, "activity_lines": [ 3.188, 3.189091, 3.37719, 3.532946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.18, "volume": 37714870, "typical_volume": 56777117.3, "trend": 3.686333, "fair_value": 3.550671, "relative_strength": -13.939626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.274036, "energy": 46.261652, "activity_lines": [ 3.188, 3.179091, 3.343762, 3.498731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }