{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8387764-03cf-4fd8-ac52-f13c7eff847a", "symbol": "600777", "name": "Shandong Xinchao Energy Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.106, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.536, "architecture_energy": 52.842, "architecture_maturity": 20.702, "architecture_confidence": 65.921, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.14, "rotation_up": 20.89, "upward_expansion": 18.14, "deceleration": 50.57, "rotation_down": 61.0, "downward_expansion": 55.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.197333, 4.341091, 4.815571, 4.937892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.25, "trend_reference": 4.906333, "distance_from_trend": -0.133773, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.183269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335105, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.046357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024096, "excess_performance": 0.0673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133773, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045235, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335105, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.595315, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050464, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318059, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024096, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.443797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129042570, "relative_activity": 0.935946, "balance": 0.443797, "dry_up": 1.244985, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103167, "annualized_volatility": 0.442133, "from_high_reference": -0.336973, "from_low_reference": 0.224784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.906333, "fair_value_reference": 3.183269, "structural_low": 3.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005533, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00973, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.030928, "worst_return": -0.038961, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.099567, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.068697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.201031, "worst_return": -0.317829, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056277, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.046794, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.469072, "worst_return": -0.313953, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.061017, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041113, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273196, "worst_return": -0.151163, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064103, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059361, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.206278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.197492, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085366, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113872, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245614, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02657, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.53, "volume": 535456199, "typical_volume": 554258712.7, "trend": 2.508667, "fair_value": 2.095641, "relative_strength": -2.080572, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.056563, "energy": 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-40.776122, "energy": 71.87357, "activity_lines": [ 4.272667, 4.687818, 5.10719, 5.06529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.23, "volume": 181074757, "typical_volume": 154198222.6, "trend": 4.882333, "fair_value": 3.162115, "relative_strength": -2.774837, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.774996, "energy": 71.66459, "activity_lines": [ 4.208, 4.542909, 5.007476, 5.024022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.19, "volume": 140520710, "typical_volume": 146379558.1, "trend": 4.892667, "fair_value": 3.172179, "relative_strength": -3.836491, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.235173, "energy": 69.233584, "activity_lines": [ 4.175333, 4.422182, 4.90681, 4.979355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.25, "volume": 129042570, "typical_volume": 137873910.45, "trend": 4.906333, "fair_value": 3.183269, "relative_strength": -5.046357, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.536121, "energy": 52.841734, "activity_lines": [ 4.197333, 4.341091, 4.815571, 4.937892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }