{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e83a9c06-142a-400c-8dae-4b518798fe78", "symbol": "RBTX", "name": "iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.692, "architecture_energy": 30.119, "architecture_maturity": 74.051, "architecture_confidence": 93.953, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.5, "rotation_up": 31.47, "upward_expansion": 59.44, "deceleration": 88.29, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 20.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1529.1, 1539.881818, 1517.880952, 1457.308602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1609.0, "trend_reference": 1383.333333, "distance_from_trend": 0.163133, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1123.277083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.432416, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.37382, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.317772, "excess_performance": 0.266537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.163133, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.432416, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037156, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.133738, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.317772, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.351061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 685468, "relative_activity": 1.369048, "balance": 1.351061, "dry_up": 1.473784, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048447, "annualized_volatility": 0.270692, "from_high_reference": -0.036729, "from_low_reference": 0.460338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1383.333333, "fair_value_reference": 1123.277083, "structural_low": 1115.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012162, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.001876, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.109837, "worst_return": -0.13319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007289, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047155, "worst_return": -0.010774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009421, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.004272, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074366, "worst_return": -0.147554, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04383, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.077676, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209069, "worst_return": -0.253058, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031422, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112723, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023004, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086428, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 857.75, "volume": 201532, "typical_volume": 159849.35, "trend": 894.395833, "fair_value": 877.318109, "relative_strength": 4.202245, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.329184, "energy": 41.217207, "activity_lines": [ 1534.6, 1546.018182, 1487.154762, 1424.764516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1481.0, "volume": 614659, "typical_volume": 461363.65, "trend": 1361.983333, "fair_value": 1114.840384, "relative_strength": 6.552503, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.365911, "energy": 28.660121, "activity_lines": [ 1507.7, 1534.881818, 1494.002381, 1433.030108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1501.0, "volume": 820795, "typical_volume": 482231.1, "trend": 1371.7, "fair_value": 1118.620833, "relative_strength": 6.456782, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.524917, "energy": 27.027128, "activity_lines": [ 1497.933333, 1527.327273, 1501.547619, 1441.998925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1609.0, "volume": 685468, "typical_volume": 500689.45, "trend": 1383.333333, "fair_value": 1123.277083, "relative_strength": 13.37382, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.691796, "energy": 30.119209, "activity_lines": [ 1529.1, 1539.881818, 1517.880952, 1457.308602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }