{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8423fdd-dc0a-4102-9d9f-0bcfdb2548a7", "symbol": "PVL", "name": "Plastiques du Val de Loire", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 86.781, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.156, "architecture_energy": 6.51, "architecture_maturity": 19.7, "architecture_confidence": 50.912, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.64, "rotation_up": 25.15, "upward_expansion": 29.93, "deceleration": 62.82, "rotation_down": 40.77, "downward_expansion": 27.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.412667, 2.465091, 2.402381, 2.374538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.35, "trend_reference": 2.406, "distance_from_trend": -0.023275, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.07641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131761, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.23874, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.126394, "excess_performance": -0.179705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023275, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069967, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183861, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032387, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050056, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126394, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.503348, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24148, "relative_activity": 0.616684, "balance": 2.503348, "dry_up": 0.707375, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108674, "annualized_volatility": 0.558723, "from_high_reference": -0.251592, "from_low_reference": 1.008547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.406, "fair_value_reference": 2.07641, "structural_low": 1.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015625, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034221, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.11146, "worst_return": -0.094915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.175824, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.131591, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171875, "worst_return": -0.39322, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.234033, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.083313, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.851562, "worst_return": -0.569492, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.441616, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.373185, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.804688, "worst_return": -0.618644, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004464, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.182222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053691, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.381503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012658, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", 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"activity_lines": [ 2.548667, 2.485455, 2.351238, 2.363935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.66, "volume": 3875, "typical_volume": 44825.3, "trend": 2.399333, "fair_value": 2.086474, "relative_strength": 25.396081, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.205876, "energy": 41.203962, "activity_lines": [ 2.606667, 2.532, 2.385476, 2.381333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.49, "volume": 30465, "typical_volume": 40709.55, "trend": 2.403333, "fair_value": 2.083333, "relative_strength": 15.717948, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.299464, "energy": 42.340008, "activity_lines": [ 2.580667, 2.536, 2.403286, 2.387183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.26, "volume": 52309, "typical_volume": 40522.35, "trend": 2.402667, "fair_value": 2.079551, "relative_strength": 2.516411, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.2828, "energy": 8.054875, "activity_lines": [ 2.48, 2.490364, 2.398476, 2.377935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.35, "volume": 24148, "typical_volume": 39157.8, "trend": 2.406, "fair_value": 2.07641, "relative_strength": 3.23874, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.155701, "energy": 6.509539, "activity_lines": [ 2.412667, 2.465091, 2.402381, 2.374538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }