{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8459929-bb27-4772-a059-96975ff1076c", "symbol": "002980", "name": "Shenzhen Everbest Machinery Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.642, "architecture_energy": 21.246, "architecture_maturity": 79.386, "architecture_confidence": 75.346, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.09, "rotation_up": 15.51, "upward_expansion": 42.12, "deceleration": 87.84, "rotation_down": 41.77, "downward_expansion": 33.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.958668, 92.091637, 95.910858, 85.354086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 82.790001, "trend_reference": 68.715334, "distance_from_trend": 0.204826, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.47071, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.907901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 68.427721, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.758057, "excess_performance": 2.750657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.204826, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.617301, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.907901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.958872, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.684277, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.760286, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.758057, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.20366, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46623362, "relative_activity": 0.799629, "balance": 1.20366, "dry_up": 0.819167, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.27219, "annualized_volatility": 0.977264, "from_high_reference": -0.391026, "from_low_reference": 3.106647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.715334, "fair_value_reference": 28.47071, "structural_low": 21.76, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019306, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037693, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.117261, "worst_return": -0.069495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.010079, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113381, "worst_return": -0.133539, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.06823, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049971, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185363, "worst_return": -0.048904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050263, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.189474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101776, 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103.467334, 108.732909, 98.321333, 83.029204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.900002, "volume": 49555797, "typical_volume": 63056734.55, "trend": 65.146, "fair_value": 27.811818, "relative_strength": 80.009552, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.356876, "energy": 24.753764, "activity_lines": [ 94.271334, 103.601819, 98.186286, 84.241441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.260002, "volume": 44137170, "typical_volume": 60433806.9, "trend": 66.658, "fair_value": 28.091407, "relative_strength": 45.163794, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.880161, "energy": 22.010552, "activity_lines": [ 83.158667, 95.888365, 96.335524, 84.313312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.790001, "volume": 46623362, "typical_volume": 58306253.0, "trend": 68.715334, "fair_value": 28.47071, "relative_strength": 68.427721, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.641703, "energy": 21.245659, "activity_lines": [ 80.958668, 92.091637, 95.910858, 85.354086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }