{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e84ff3c3-6f32-476b-a1a0-d2875527e24f", "symbol": "NTD", "name": "NTAW Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.978, "architecture_energy": 11.657, "architecture_maturity": 23.643, "architecture_confidence": 72.204, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.15, "rotation_up": 22.49, "upward_expansion": 30.97, "deceleration": 36.45, "rotation_down": 38.18, "downward_expansion": 46.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.199333, 0.200818, 0.197857, 0.197 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.19, "trend_reference": 0.201333, "distance_from_trend": -0.056291, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.380741, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.500973, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.877866, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191489, "excess_performance": -0.255195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056291, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.500973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012747, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191489, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.605836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 407194, "relative_activity": 2.55688, "balance": 0.605836, "dry_up": 1.072821, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13664, "annualized_volatility": 0.76455, "from_high_reference": -0.479452, "from_low_reference": 0.266667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.201333, "fair_value_reference": 0.380741, "structural_low": 0.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03381, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.083415, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.454545, "worst_return": -0.119048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.040067, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.14, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056631, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.315309, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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"down", "direction": -26.505659, "energy": 17.981888, "activity_lines": [ 0.196667, 0.198727, 0.194667, 0.197215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.225, "volume": 15763, "typical_volume": 146303.85, "trend": 0.205, "fair_value": 0.386285, "relative_strength": -7.040395, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.927452, "energy": 5.957048, "activity_lines": [ 0.204333, 0.204, 0.197952, 0.198495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.195, "volume": 1319, "typical_volume": 142486.05, "trend": 0.203167, "fair_value": 0.383497, "relative_strength": -20.876656, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.235868, "energy": 5.794479, "activity_lines": [ 0.203, 0.202909, 0.198214, 0.197849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.19, "volume": 407194, "typical_volume": 159254.25, "trend": 0.201333, "fair_value": 0.380741, "relative_strength": -24.877866, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.978079, "energy": 11.656591, "activity_lines": [ 0.199333, 0.200818, 0.197857, 0.197 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }