{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8518f7a-69a2-4475-b1c0-3237dee6390a", "symbol": "XMGA", "name": "Amundi MSCI USA Ex Mega Cap UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.924, "architecture_energy": 72.014, "architecture_maturity": 68.796, "architecture_confidence": 62.901, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.53, "rotation_up": 57.48, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.49, "rotation_down": 28.66, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.389867, 10.347891, 10.164248, 9.985256 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.556, "trend_reference": 9.7792, "distance_from_trend": 0.079434, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.268291, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138937, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.624709, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.136643, "excess_performance": -0.034249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079434, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038492, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074774, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023622, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136643, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.793745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2123, "relative_activity": 1.008599, "balance": 1.793745, "dry_up": 1.292698, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013306, "annualized_volatility": 0.085535, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.193713 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.7792, "fair_value_reference": 9.268291, "structural_low": 9.154, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001166, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009309, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001166, "worst_return": 0.001166, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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9.631267, "fair_value": 9.214768, "relative_strength": -4.87798, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.575739, "energy": 92.428986, "activity_lines": [ 10.3252, 10.205073, 9.958567, 9.810761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.322, "volume": 3975, "typical_volume": 2882.75, "trend": 9.671033, "fair_value": 9.228108, "relative_strength": -3.986085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.50905, "energy": 79.668362, "activity_lines": [ 10.3392, 10.248127, 10.011429, 9.855325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.304, "volume": 33, "typical_volume": 2363.1, "trend": 9.7102, "fair_value": 9.240917, "relative_strength": -3.819385, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.040744, "energy": 67.875052, "activity_lines": [ 10.3344, 10.276345, 10.058767, 9.896161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.28, "volume": 4753, "typical_volume": 2476.2, "trend": 9.744833, "fair_value": 9.253141, "relative_strength": -4.511955, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.67826, "energy": 65.016081, "activity_lines": [ 10.315733, 10.290018, 10.100467, 9.932923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.556, "volume": 2123, "typical_volume": 2104.9, "trend": 9.7792, "fair_value": 9.268291, "relative_strength": -4.624709, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.92358, "energy": 72.013857, "activity_lines": [ 10.389867, 10.347891, 10.164248, 9.985256 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }