{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e85f7091-9d5d-4553-8a80-8540a10ee640", "symbol": "AINP", "name": "ALLSPRING INCOME PLUS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.73, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.187, "architecture_energy": 16.177, "architecture_maturity": 18.191, "architecture_confidence": 46.078, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.97, "rotation_up": 24.08, "upward_expansion": 12.72, "deceleration": 48.76, "rotation_down": 51.58, "downward_expansion": 47.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.768781, 24.804665, 24.818945, 24.807638 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.87, "trend_reference": 24.810789, "distance_from_trend": 0.002387, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.151496, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.263726, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000573, "excess_performance": -0.126198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002387, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002972, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02975, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004859, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007654, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000573, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.980059, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10479, "relative_activity": 0.166968, "balance": 0.980059, "dry_up": 0.402988, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00655, "annualized_volatility": 0.03951, "from_high_reference": -0.0065, "from_low_reference": 0.032794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.810789, "fair_value_reference": 24.151496, "structural_low": 24.379839, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.001803, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024125, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.002934, "worst_return": -0.00654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.584757, "energy": 13.355037, "activity_lines": [ 24.779372, 24.825954, 24.818415, 24.811135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.695, "volume": 23779, "typical_volume": 63266.6, "trend": 24.809164, "fair_value": 24.143238, "relative_strength": -8.063664, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.774035, "energy": 25.570143, "activity_lines": [ 24.737853, 24.798846, 24.810635, 24.803713 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.87, "volume": 10479, "typical_volume": 62760.55, "trend": 24.810789, "fair_value": 24.151496, "relative_strength": -10.263726, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.187111, "energy": 16.176782, "activity_lines": [ 24.768781, 24.804665, 24.818945, 24.807638 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }