{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e85fe33c-548f-4e1e-bdd1-7c29d4a2c377", "symbol": "MLWEA", "name": "Weaccess Group, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.264, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.372, "architecture_energy": 8.076, "architecture_maturity": 48.876, "architecture_confidence": 78.721, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.11, "rotation_up": 24.73, "upward_expansion": 49.61, "deceleration": 81.93, "rotation_down": 32.05, "downward_expansion": 29.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.538667, 2.587273, 2.618762, 2.542022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.5, "trend_reference": 2.400667, "distance_from_trend": 0.041377, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.493166, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.674295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.622965, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.420455, "excess_performance": 0.367143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041377, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.674295, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02757, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.09623, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.400928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.420455, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.189655, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50, "relative_activity": 0.170039, "balance": 1.189655, "dry_up": 1.045741, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089846, "annualized_volatility": 0.93407, "from_high_reference": -0.137931, "from_low_reference": 2.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.400667, "fair_value_reference": 1.493166, "structural_low": 1.76, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008333, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.024708, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.18595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.096, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.046792, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.2125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.020554, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.760684, "worst_return": -0.813223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015833, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091138, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 3.786325, "worst_return": -0.830579, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.456853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.64486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.298701, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.958042, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.245455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.11811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.137931, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 86.3, "trend": 2.143333, "fair_value": 2.357692, "relative_strength": -36.32952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 8.902548, "energy": 17.539168, "activity_lines": [ 2.570667, 2.667636, 2.600952, 2.482108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.9, "volume": 421, "typical_volume": 568.1, "trend": 2.350667, "fair_value": 1.474191, "relative_strength": 38.983781, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.69174, "energy": 29.224247, "activity_lines": [ 2.650667, 2.704727, 2.640286, 2.519054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.3, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 589.1, "trend": 2.364, "fair_value": 1.479319, "relative_strength": 8.261446, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.953575, "energy": 15.52662, "activity_lines": [ 2.524, 2.624727, 2.617619, 2.515785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.66, "volume": 259, "typical_volume": 436.6, "trend": 2.389333, "fair_value": 1.486755, "relative_strength": 21.185049, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.757474, "energy": 18.546433, "activity_lines": [ 2.557333, 2.619273, 2.627238, 2.534882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.5, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 294.05, "trend": 2.400667, "fair_value": 1.493166, "relative_strength": 9.622965, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.371701, "energy": 8.075718, "activity_lines": [ 2.538667, 2.587273, 2.618762, 2.542022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }