{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e86f57af-955b-40d6-8eca-f62d5331c0fe", "symbol": "SONAMLTD", "name": "Sonam Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.224, "architecture_energy": 19.644, "architecture_maturity": 30.09, "architecture_confidence": 61.841, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.94, "rotation_up": 39.79, "upward_expansion": 67.55, "deceleration": 68.03, "rotation_down": 23.51, "downward_expansion": 7.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.372187, 54.195443, 54.176393, 53.429539 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 54.419998, "trend_reference": 51.27071, "distance_from_trend": 0.061425, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.957605, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134752, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.335709, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.35508, "excess_performance": 0.398789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061425, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084834, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134752, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040371, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.133357, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018117, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.35508, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.25756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84724, "relative_activity": 0.478423, "balance": 2.25756, "dry_up": 1.598921, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090331, "annualized_volatility": 0.339765, "from_high_reference": -0.127185, "from_low_reference": 0.45508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.27071, "fair_value_reference": 47.957605, "structural_low": 39.200001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.008428, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.016956, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.197115, "worst_return": -0.163333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.08567, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.060008, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.221586, "worst_return": -0.41114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.145579, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.026927, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.441921, "worst_return": -0.335934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.23432, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.045377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.483095, "worst_return": -0.415041, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222925, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245391, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101747, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051056, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01261, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14998, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05743, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019622, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.225, "volume": 62486, "typical_volume": 228047.0, "trend": 24.388333, "fair_value": 18.980849, "relative_strength": 6.824411, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.769442, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 52.71637, "volume": 179170, "typical_volume": 223264.75, "trend": 50.361573, "fair_value": 47.586392, "relative_strength": 14.33927, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.223649, "energy": 14.648921, "activity_lines": [ 53.882711, 54.227756, 54.031945, 52.901785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.91413, "volume": 314972, "typical_volume": 194024.2, "trend": 50.792377, "fair_value": 47.771739, "relative_strength": 15.665411, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.279471, "energy": 20.70425, "activity_lines": [ 54.289609, 54.224922, 54.123875, 53.195499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.419998, "volume": 84724, "typical_volume": 177090.25, "trend": 51.27071, "fair_value": 47.957605, "relative_strength": 13.335709, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.22404, "energy": 19.643751, "activity_lines": [ 54.372187, 54.195443, 54.176393, 53.429539 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }