{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e878b521-bbf7-4036-ba35-038749c26199", "symbol": "AJMERA", "name": "Ajmera Realty & Infra India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.254, "architecture_energy": 19.456, "architecture_maturity": 29.514, "architecture_confidence": 75.998, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.18, "rotation_up": 12.72, "upward_expansion": 22.41, "deceleration": 65.18, "rotation_down": 53.48, "downward_expansion": 55.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.306, 128.059818, 126.840524, 125.982968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 123.650002, "trend_reference": 129.007, "distance_from_trend": -0.041525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 149.255908, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171557, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.524674, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.146535, "excess_performance": -0.102826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149122, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171557, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004778, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.15501, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3379577, "relative_activity": 1.541493, "balance": 0.15501, "dry_up": 0.933114, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098, "annualized_volatility": 0.390037, "from_high_reference": -0.441509, "from_low_reference": 0.261349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 129.007, "fair_value_reference": 149.255908, "structural_low": 98.029999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.015458, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.033157, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.44473, "worst_return": -0.125047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.119069, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081878, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.357618, "worst_return": 0.062809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.301264, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.201077, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.430373, "worst_return": 0.006961, "sufficient": false }, 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024017, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048726, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028086, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054936, 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2157104.9, "trend": 131.111333, "fair_value": 148.941473, "relative_strength": -18.654507, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.786559, "energy": 11.530796, "activity_lines": [ 127.201333, 128.861454, 126.838571, 126.464344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.650002, "volume": 3379577, "typical_volume": 2192404.45, "trend": 129.007, "fair_value": 149.255908, "relative_strength": -20.524674, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.253882, "energy": 19.455538, "activity_lines": [ 125.306, 128.059818, 126.840524, 125.982968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }