{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e87d48c9-493e-4a91-a01c-670a2ec36abf", "symbol": "601928", "name": "Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.482, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.01, "architecture_energy": 22.795, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 47.443, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.08, "rotation_up": 44.73, "upward_expansion": 35.31, "deceleration": 44.22, "rotation_down": 22.6, "downward_expansion": 45.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.521333, 9.347091, 9.297667, 9.40228 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.2, "trend_reference": 9.571333, "distance_from_trend": -0.038796, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.975046, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077698, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.891446, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.088206, "excess_performance": -0.045002, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038796, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077698, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022322, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094931, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088206, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.269098, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62012825, "relative_activity": 1.833143, "balance": 1.269098, "dry_up": 1.805215, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047157, "annualized_volatility": 0.19581, "from_high_reference": -0.197982, "from_low_reference": 0.062356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.571333, "fair_value_reference": 9.975046, "structural_low": 8.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.020112, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.00996, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.41195, "worst_return": -0.080919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02744, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011195, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.372686, "worst_return": -0.147619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.068571, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.075967, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.149225, "worst_return": -0.054311, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 31939917.9, "trend": 9.601333, "fair_value": 9.977139, "relative_strength": -0.65537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.751294, "energy": 16.621321, "activity_lines": [ 9.307333, 9.185818, 9.256476, 9.401032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.02, "volume": 66043710, "typical_volume": 32910321.65, "trend": 9.599333, "fair_value": 9.97767, "relative_strength": 3.684347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 18.075094, "energy": 29.5284, "activity_lines": [ 9.592667, 9.349636, 9.316333, 9.428043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.2, "volume": 62012825, "typical_volume": 33828691.0, "trend": 9.571333, "fair_value": 9.975046, "relative_strength": -6.891446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.009775, "energy": 22.794632, "activity_lines": [ 9.521333, 9.347091, 9.297667, 9.40228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }