{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e87ea811-12e3-40cd-a2f6-0e0282208ccf",
    "symbol": "SJ",
    "name": "Stella-Jones Inc.",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -62.645,
    "architecture_energy": 56.302,
    "architecture_maturity": 29.676,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.048,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.72,
        "rotation_up": 17.67,
        "upward_expansion": 10.06,
        "deceleration": 43.45,
        "rotation_down": 63.8,
        "downward_expansion": 85.72
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        77.012667,
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        78.717515,
        81.28283
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 76.660004,
    "trend_reference": 84.796166,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.09595,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 78.114535,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01862,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -18.515023,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.213486,
    "excess_performance": -0.333907,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.09595,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.02386,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01862,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057483,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.18515,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056944,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.213486,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.705376,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1088500,
      "relative_activity": 1.754245,
      "balance": 1.705376,
      "dry_up": 1.266086,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.047815,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.311291,
      "from_high_reference": -0.24058,
      "from_low_reference": 0.100837
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 84.796166,
      "fair_value_reference": 78.114535,
      "structural_low": 69.637923,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": -0.002763,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006949,
        "regime_survival": 0.863636,
        "best_return": 0.148018,
        "worst_return": -0.118432,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.029189,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002436,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
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        "worst_return": -0.12502,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.007727,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.030826,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.091051,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.237551,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.162261,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-01-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.122481,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.036949,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.081961,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.018504,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.023214,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.070679,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
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        "return": 0.031096,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.002979,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 83.348442,
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        "typical_volume": 562865.0,
        "trend": 87.345918,
        "fair_value": 76.319389,
        "relative_strength": -12.437867,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "relative_strength": -12.815759,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 87.32164,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 687915.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 709635.0,
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        "fair_value": 77.00984,
        "relative_strength": -21.454382,
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        "modifier": "Structural failure",
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        "energy": 85.093673,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 736690.0,
        "trend": 86.868837,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 722800.0,
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        "fair_value": 77.256535,
        "relative_strength": -11.973416,
        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 703775.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 630665.0,
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        "fair_value": 77.616013,
        "relative_strength": -12.034251,
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        "energy": 31.210611,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 32500,
        "typical_volume": 601715.0,
        "trend": 86.353381,
        "fair_value": 77.709839,
        "relative_strength": -14.442193,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 650000,
        "typical_volume": 607495.0,
        "trend": 86.070901,
        "fair_value": 77.80843,
        "relative_strength": -15.316747,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.455898,
        "energy": 25.2162,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 76.510002,
        "volume": 785300,
        "typical_volume": 601045.0,
        "trend": 85.782153,
        "fair_value": 77.879684,
        "relative_strength": -17.377151,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.380615,
        "energy": 41.431312,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.958667,
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          80.156334,
          82.933466
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 76.860001,
        "volume": 687800,
        "typical_volume": 605615.0,
        "trend": 85.472189,
        "fair_value": 77.959648,
        "relative_strength": -16.801347,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.965649,
        "energy": 46.247821,
        "activity_lines": [
          77.953334,
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          79.576588,
          82.357843
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 77.339996,
        "volume": 580800,
        "typical_volume": 607070.0,
        "trend": 85.190515,
        "fair_value": 78.042504,
        "relative_strength": -15.513423,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.711726,
        "energy": 49.058975,
        "activity_lines": [
          77.439333,
          78.777744,
          79.133477,
          81.833186
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 76.660004,
        "volume": 1088500,
        "typical_volume": 620495.0,
        "trend": 84.796166,
        "fair_value": 78.114535,
        "relative_strength": -18.515023,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.645446,
        "energy": 56.302097,
        "activity_lines": [
          77.012667,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}