{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8816462-9361-40d2-9d50-d6bbc9ad198e", "symbol": "MAYZ", "name": "TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (MAY) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.825, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.457, "architecture_energy": 63.552, "architecture_maturity": 49.292, "architecture_confidence": 79.445, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.19, "rotation_up": 56.72, "upward_expansion": 83.52, "deceleration": 59.3, "rotation_down": 27.79, "downward_expansion": 10.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.34374, 36.171193, 35.871973, 35.253775 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.0671, "trend_reference": 34.57691, "distance_from_trend": 0.072019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.641552, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250511, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.413089, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096799, "excess_performance": -0.028826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072019, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026351, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250511, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005306, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001815, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096799, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.872931, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17993, "relative_activity": 0.861175, "balance": 0.872931, "dry_up": 0.281546, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015748, "annualized_volatility": 0.122277, "from_high_reference": -0.000617, "from_low_reference": 0.194172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.57691, "fair_value_reference": 29.641552, "structural_low": 31.04, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.014637, "positive_rate": 0.71875, "directional_follow_through": 0.71875, "median_excess_return": -0.004151, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.04603, "worst_return": -0.031623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.02898, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.011207, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.095378, "worst_return": -0.04077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069883, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026888, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.098132, "worst_return": 0.052706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.492703, "energy": 59.9829, "activity_lines": [ 36.05676, 35.994509, 35.31012, 34.77613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.9388, "volume": 721, "typical_volume": 21135.05, "trend": 34.322567, "fair_value": 29.402838, "relative_strength": -1.802235, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.962186, "energy": 55.322379, "activity_lines": [ 36.039027, 35.995515, 35.445321, 34.885827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.7236, "volume": 2638, "typical_volume": 20916.2, "trend": 34.386087, "fair_value": 29.476854, "relative_strength": -1.745359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.243827, "energy": 48.805387, "activity_lines": [ 35.94304, 35.951202, 35.548125, 34.976216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.0948, "volume": 2178, "typical_volume": 20097.1, "trend": 34.473647, "fair_value": 29.555942, "relative_strength": -1.720386, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.800054, "energy": 51.771628, "activity_lines": [ 35.998767, 35.974153, 35.67264, 35.086456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.0671, "volume": 17993, "typical_volume": 20893.55, "trend": 34.57691, "fair_value": 29.641552, "relative_strength": -2.413089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.457281, "energy": 63.551582, "activity_lines": [ 36.34374, 36.171193, 35.871973, 35.253775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }