{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e89335d1-41b2-4366-ac5d-b484696aea4d", "symbol": "SILJ", "name": "AMPLIFY ETF TRUST JUNIOR SILVER MINERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.369, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.137, "architecture_energy": 32.823, "architecture_maturity": 29.598, "architecture_confidence": 88.726, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.49, "rotation_up": 24.93, "upward_expansion": 6.21, "deceleration": 53.51, "rotation_down": 50.2, "downward_expansion": 79.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.958667, 25.965273, 27.248429, 28.408667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.14, "trend_reference": 30.174667, "distance_from_trend": -0.034289, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.117636, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.807957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.043366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.110772, "excess_performance": -0.236397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034289, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.807957, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.365893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110772, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.838414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26126264, "relative_activity": 1.200906, "balance": 0.838414, "dry_up": 0.852697, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118315, "annualized_volatility": 0.629622, "from_high_reference": -0.290998, "from_low_reference": 0.839069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.174667, "fair_value_reference": 16.117636, "structural_low": 23.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.022422, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.009426, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.196385, "worst_return": -0.214408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.006539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020446, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.265419, "worst_return": -0.187822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018114, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019799, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.41438, "worst_return": -0.173387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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28.881312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.09, "volume": 16485598, "typical_volume": 23085965.35, "trend": 30.222, "fair_value": 15.986636, "relative_strength": -17.416698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.381683, "energy": 59.494198, "activity_lines": [ 24.566, 25.454364, 27.156952, 28.478473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.14, "volume": 26126264, "typical_volume": 21755469.65, "trend": 30.174667, "fair_value": 16.117636, "relative_strength": -4.043366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.137061, "energy": 32.823463, "activity_lines": [ 25.958667, 25.965273, 27.248429, 28.408667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }