{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e896b178-ae9a-4358-8e05-224d42224500", "symbol": "ASMG", "name": "LEVERAGE SHARES 2X LONG ASML DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.165, "architecture_energy": 18.016, "architecture_maturity": 58.549, "architecture_confidence": 92.742, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.75, "rotation_up": 19.53, "upward_expansion": 51.32, "deceleration": 93.46, "rotation_down": 33.4, "downward_expansion": 19.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.077267, 49.632165, 48.194234, 45.381717 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.7416, "trend_reference": 42.207157, "distance_from_trend": 0.131126, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.32366, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.885257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 30.118813, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.255697, "excess_performance": 0.068243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131126, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.281978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.885257, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258406, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.301188, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297347, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.255697, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.972488, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 206441, "relative_activity": 0.352008, "balance": 0.972488, "dry_up": 0.769839, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208888, "annualized_volatility": 0.827878, "from_high_reference": -0.274664, "from_low_reference": 3.344359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.207157, "fair_value_reference": 25.32366, "structural_low": 28.54, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"volume": 484344, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.99, "volume": 934340, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.447, "volume": 279047, "typical_volume": 596838.55, "trend": 41.14077, "fair_value": 24.832482, "relative_strength": 47.36732, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.172574, "energy": 21.41988, "activity_lines": [ 50.39014, 51.886362, 48.030472, 44.92124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.2, "volume": 386113, "typical_volume": 594768.2, "trend": 41.663437, "fair_value": 25.046895, "relative_strength": 23.029538, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.626781, "energy": 15.487074, "activity_lines": [ 47.4295, 50.218729, 47.869114, 44.989577 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.7416, "volume": 206441, "typical_volume": 586467.25, "trend": 42.207157, "fair_value": 25.32366, "relative_strength": 30.118813, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.164727, "energy": 18.016438, "activity_lines": [ 47.077267, 49.632165, 48.194234, 45.381717 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }