{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e898f638-d078-467f-b909-95e2dc7cb8e3", "symbol": "KDP", "name": "Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.061, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.206, "architecture_energy": 26.055, "architecture_maturity": 60.214, "architecture_confidence": 71.757, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.06, "rotation_up": 23.53, "upward_expansion": 57.34, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 30.52, "downward_expansion": 21.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.651, 27.152449, 26.482663, 25.786553 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.995001, "trend_reference": 24.990948, "distance_from_trend": 0.040177, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.184542, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.043758, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.195622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099238, "excess_performance": -0.075009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040177, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052282, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.043758, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056337, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0387, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099238, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.65628, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1116, "relative_activity": 2.77336, "balance": 0.65628, "dry_up": 1.737078, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047693, "annualized_volatility": 0.274448, "from_high_reference": -0.123395, "from_low_reference": 0.230647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.990948, "fair_value_reference": 27.184542, "structural_low": 21.85, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049105, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.013261, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.076121, "worst_return": -0.073631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074959, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.050537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145953, "worst_return": -0.09251, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.043983, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.004886, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.120894, "worst_return": -0.182211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038932, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008157, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049199, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046936, 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"relative_strength": -4.176167, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.969265, "energy": 96.865411, "activity_lines": [ 27.362351, 26.425529, 25.22615, 24.766868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 29.110001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 287.35, "trend": 24.465749, "fair_value": 27.199262, "relative_strength": -5.565387, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.444537, "energy": 96.086448, "activity_lines": [ 28.101311, 27.030666, 25.649586, 25.077222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.65, "volume": 1173, "typical_volume": 325.2, "trend": 24.565992, "fair_value": 27.212458, "relative_strength": -8.467519, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.831329, "energy": 86.080871, "activity_lines": [ 28.127053, 27.286923, 25.913716, 25.282657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.379999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 309.4, "trend": 24.694327, "fair_value": 27.215886, "relative_strength": -6.887252, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.953682, "energy": 70.979982, "activity_lines": [ 27.967958, 27.442618, 26.138026, 25.464206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.200001, "volume": 788, "typical_volume": 348.8, "trend": 24.788721, "fair_value": 27.202977, "relative_strength": -11.438791, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.148385, "energy": 53.168951, "activity_lines": [ 27.382334, 27.330896, 26.241022, 25.561346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.195, "volume": 792, "typical_volume": 388.4, "trend": 24.910577, "fair_value": 27.197767, "relative_strength": -7.292904, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.680531, "energy": 34.342356, "activity_lines": [ 27.155, 27.37155, 26.427524, 25.71659 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.995001, "volume": 1116, "typical_volume": 402.4, "trend": 24.990948, "fair_value": 27.184542, "relative_strength": -13.195622, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.205842, "energy": 26.055358, "activity_lines": [ 26.651, 27.152449, 26.482663, 25.786553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }