{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e89cc921-a84a-4f0d-8de0-f06dcd15259a", "symbol": "003011", "name": "Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.773, "architecture_energy": 46.14, "architecture_maturity": 27.255, "architecture_confidence": 87.044, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.33, "rotation_up": 18.34, "upward_expansion": 6.17, "deceleration": 50.51, "rotation_down": 58.62, "downward_expansion": 79.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.248667, 18.66948, 20.074408, 21.204615 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.690001, "trend_reference": 22.409834, "distance_from_trend": -0.121368, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.347004, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.948622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161414, "excess_performance": -0.168814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121368, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051371, "read": "Falling" 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15.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.006484, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.008172, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.396849, "worst_return": -0.41221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.03298, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.032474, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.591453, "worst_return": -0.26398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.250109, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.194025, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.479727, "worst_return": -0.350667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 18.555767, "relative_strength": -20.689625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.421005, "energy": 64.158301, "activity_lines": [ 18.91319, 19.687955, 21.163289, 22.090368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.76, "volume": 15496576, "typical_volume": 13993206.15, "trend": 22.627168, "fair_value": 18.475746, "relative_strength": -24.799229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.361722, "energy": 61.664076, "activity_lines": [ 18.074977, 18.992226, 20.62898, 21.700443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.74, "volume": 12034177, "typical_volume": 13748418.7, "trend": 22.488168, "fair_value": 18.407654, "relative_strength": -18.821712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.601729, "energy": 65.292567, "activity_lines": [ 17.802, 18.586058, 20.238575, 21.385142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.690001, "volume": 13808095, "typical_volume": 13754336.55, "trend": 22.409834, "fair_value": 18.347004, "relative_strength": -13.948622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.772555, "energy": 46.140024, "activity_lines": [ 18.248667, 18.66948, 20.074408, 21.204615 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }