{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8a5c9d0-381d-4d0b-af39-2f4ae688fe16", "symbol": "101280", "name": "KODEX Japan", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.074, "architecture_energy": 17.932, "architecture_maturity": 55.202, "architecture_confidence": 77.13, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.42, "rotation_up": 22.49, "upward_expansion": 53.41, "deceleration": 90.93, "rotation_down": 33.34, "downward_expansion": 19.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 30977.310547, 31337.021342, 31165.646661, 30706.435723 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 31065.0, "trend_reference": 30109.558919, "distance_from_trend": 0.031732, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22753.451015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.365287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.469073, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074738, "excess_performance": -0.155091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031732, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056157, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.365287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038824, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.26062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074738, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.733641, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81668, "relative_activity": 0.981084, "balance": 1.733641, "dry_up": 1.293246, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053242, "annualized_volatility": 0.175499, "from_high_reference": -0.063602, "from_low_reference": 0.32161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30109.558919, "fair_value_reference": 22753.451015, "structural_low": 25757.615224, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004956, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.010384, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.052035, "worst_return": -0.027974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021266, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.02208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090551, "worst_return": -0.042361, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007253, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.042911, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10463, "worst_return": -0.063006, 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"typical_volume": 82811.6, "trend": 29983.81888, "fair_value": 22660.992044, "relative_strength": -17.355026, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.035435, "energy": 17.485722, "activity_lines": [ 31100.928776, 31435.963352, 31117.884235, 30636.682103 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31065.0, "volume": 81668, "typical_volume": 83242.65, "trend": 30109.558919, "fair_value": 22753.451015, "relative_strength": -11.469073, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.074396, "energy": 17.931778, "activity_lines": [ 30977.310547, 31337.021342, 31165.646661, 30706.435723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }