{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8a8abec-6856-4c97-9d97-a657c0ef4441", "symbol": "M1RN34", "name": "Moderna, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 82.695, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.109, "architecture_energy": 24.236, "architecture_maturity": 64.119, "architecture_confidence": 88.845, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.29, "rotation_up": 21.29, "upward_expansion": 54.67, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 40.6, "downward_expansion": 23.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.646, 15.637091, 14.758333, 14.23815 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.73, "trend_reference": 13.526333, "distance_from_trend": 0.088987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.443718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104217, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.774145, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.363889, "excess_performance": 0.420937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104217, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16342, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.327741, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103492, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.363889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.233865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81490, "relative_activity": 0.53087, "balance": 0.233865, "dry_up": 0.559725, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155204, "annualized_volatility": 0.712131, "from_high_reference": -0.330455, "from_low_reference": 1.446844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.526333, "fair_value_reference": 16.443718, "structural_low": 9.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.097507, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065524, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.344531, "worst_return": -0.296386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.280597, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.459883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214989, "worst_return": -0.511145, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.476815, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.504062, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.337065, "worst_return": -0.616566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.243337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.165125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12716, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08558, 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"stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.994214, "energy": 40.932333, "activity_lines": [ 16.22, 15.952545, 14.687857, 14.095204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.99, "volume": 61376, "typical_volume": 166464.55, "trend": 13.344, "fair_value": 16.509487, "relative_strength": 23.454562, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.461065, "energy": 19.883071, "activity_lines": [ 15.199333, 15.745272, 14.688047, 14.148731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.73, "volume": 81490, "typical_volume": 153502.6, "trend": 13.526333, "fair_value": 16.443718, "relative_strength": 32.774145, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.109227, "energy": 24.236, "activity_lines": [ 14.646, 15.637091, 14.758333, 14.23815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }