{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8aac374-d24a-4859-b387-ced6ee9c109d", "symbol": "3323", "name": "Celxpert Energy Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.68, "architecture_energy": 58.957, "architecture_maturity": 15.541, "architecture_confidence": 86.179, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.04, "rotation_up": 11.22, "upward_expansion": 12.13, "deceleration": 39.09, "rotation_down": 63.53, "downward_expansion": 83.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.24, 31.312728, 32.905239, 33.562366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.5, "trend_reference": 34.778334, "distance_from_trend": -0.094264, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.337887, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.452113, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.179688, "excess_performance": -0.62106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094264, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02591, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103949, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.424521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033999, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179688, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.070263, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2829480, "relative_activity": 0.386604, "balance": 1.070263, "dry_up": 0.364165, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117338, "annualized_volatility": 0.380273, "from_high_reference": -0.455017, "from_low_reference": 0.235294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.778334, "fair_value_reference": 32.337887, "structural_low": 25.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.001948, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.008352, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.692153, "worst_return": -0.110414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018212, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.030917, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.451144, "worst_return": -0.086271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027364, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044836, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.7921, "worst_return": -0.159312, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 31.910001, 33.331819, 34.031191, 34.623334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.65, "volume": 2897693, "typical_volume": 7938497.65, "trend": 35.393334, "fair_value": 32.334512, "relative_strength": -47.941509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.998875, "energy": 71.85289, "activity_lines": [ 30.260001, 32.087273, 33.405239, 34.094517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.700001, "volume": 2891257, "typical_volume": 7869153.1, "trend": 35.055, "fair_value": 32.33504, "relative_strength": -42.807158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.422357, "energy": 66.872824, "activity_lines": [ 30.000001, 31.561819, 33.106667, 33.791721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 31.5, "volume": 2829480, "typical_volume": 7318804.25, "trend": 34.778334, "fair_value": 32.337887, "relative_strength": -42.452113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.680236, "energy": 58.956753, "activity_lines": [ 30.24, 31.312728, 32.905239, 33.562366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }