{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8b032ee-9054-4d04-8315-c0d8319a36d5", "symbol": "FORR", "name": "Forrester Research Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 6, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 82.487, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 75.741, "composite_score": 85.45, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.842, "architecture_energy": 93.668, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.525, "architecture_age_weeks": 3, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.842, "energy": 93.668, "maturity": 26.0, "confidence": 80.525, "confirmation": 98.838, "age_weeks": 3, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.02, "rotation_up": 84.67, "upward_expansion": 97.37, "deceleration": 41.94, "rotation_down": 8.52, "downward_expansion": 21.7 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 10.226, "10": 9.308364, "20": 8.171476, "30": 7.615699 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.906819, "10": 1.544902, "20": 1.084979, "30": 0.694564 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 2.207586, "fan_width_change_4": 0.943302, "fan_width_percentile": 0.923077, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.584538, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.836088, "price_acceptance": 0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": 1.077449, "accepted_above": 0.833333, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.25 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 82/100." }, "latest_close": 11.5, "sma_30": 7.214667, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.593975, "sma_30_slope": 0.061501, "fair_value": 14.806603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223319, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.394666, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 34.823892, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 66.873317, "range_position_52": 0.96361, "returns": { "13": 0.81388, "26": 0.418002, "52": 0.051188 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.332682, "52": -0.163646 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 44.37, "2": 44.0, "3": 28.06, "4": 0.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.593975, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.061501, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.223319, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.394666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.348239, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.668733, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.418002, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.088288, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 644609, "ratio_20": 1.109941, "up_down_ratio_13": 3.088288, "dry_up_ratio": 1.181552, "accumulation_weeks": 5, "distribution_weeks": 1 }, "base": { "high_26": 11.33, "low_26": 4.88, "depth": 0.569285, "compression": 0.767831, "breakout_distance": 0.015004 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.102819, "annualized_volatility": 0.788645, "drawdown_from_52_high": -0.021277, "advance_from_52_low": 1.356557 }, "levels": { "breakout_reference": 11.33, "trend_reference": 7.214667, "fair_value_reference": 14.806603, "support_reference": 4.88, "range_low": 4.88, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the 26-week range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while the 30-week average falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "chart_path": [ { "week": "2023-08-11", "open": 31.78, "high": 32.78, "low": 31.58, "close": 31.95, "volume": 199011, "sma_30": 31.589667, "fair_value_history": 42.687756, "mansfield_rs": -15.711134, "stage": 4, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.79383, "architecture_energy": 41.974986, "activity_5": 31.727333, "activity_10": 30.969455, "activity_20": 30.216667, "activity_30": 30.578516 }, { "week": "2023-08-18", "open": 31.73, "high": 31.9566, "low": 30.88, "close": 30.92, "volume": 168920, "sma_30": 31.39, 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8.171476, "activity_30": 7.615699 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. 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