{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8be15ed-b831-4991-83a9-51993675f567", "symbol": "300171", "name": "Tofflon Science and Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.086, "architecture_energy": 22.278, "architecture_maturity": 90.856, "architecture_confidence": 71.655, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.11, "rotation_up": 32.91, "upward_expansion": 23.04, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 18.85, "downward_expansion": 54.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.222667, 11.887455, 12.054277, 12.750673 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.86, "trend_reference": 13.875678, "distance_from_trend": -0.073198, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.206507, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094781, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.333732, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.21337, "excess_performance": -0.22077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073198, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095737, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094781, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028882, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123195, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21337, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.271943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71330327, "relative_activity": 1.970859, "balance": 1.271943, "dry_up": 1.878563, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064145, "annualized_volatility": 0.313025, "from_high_reference": -0.364363, "from_low_reference": 0.195167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.875678, "fair_value_reference": 14.206507, "structural_low": 10.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.018088, "positive_rate": 0.314286, "directional_follow_through": 0.685714, "median_excess_return": -0.006706, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.237805, "worst_return": -0.189858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.070244, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.047962, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.235236, "worst_return": -0.273744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.131534, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.134173, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.259377, "worst_return": -0.347762, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -28.129312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.10002, "energy": 61.40177, "activity_lines": [ 11.448, 11.516527, 12.365836, 13.27342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.68, "volume": 82796399, "typical_volume": 34177404.05, "trend": 14.20537, "fair_value": 14.373705, "relative_strength": -20.570399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.348713, "energy": 50.03726, "activity_lines": [ 11.561333, 11.50124, 12.209865, 13.102974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.76, "volume": 60945963, "typical_volume": 34662940.2, "trend": 14.088516, "fair_value": 14.313034, "relative_strength": -19.878882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.154141, "energy": 39.794049, "activity_lines": [ 11.663333, 11.52813, 12.090127, 12.945209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.18, "volume": 56886985, "typical_volume": 35319572.7, "trend": 13.966791, "fair_value": 14.256416, "relative_strength": -15.258923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.060017, "energy": 33.294222, "activity_lines": [ 11.876667, 11.646545, 12.032333, 12.822079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.86, "volume": 71330327, "typical_volume": 36192505.75, "trend": 13.875678, "fair_value": 14.206507, "relative_strength": -14.333732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.085852, "energy": 22.277744, "activity_lines": [ 12.222667, 11.887455, 12.054277, 12.750673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }