{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8bee1cf-81c5-425d-8a73-1e898ede7dbc", "symbol": "SEMI", "name": "COLUMBIA SELECT TECHNOLOGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.399, "architecture_energy": 22.981, "architecture_maturity": 68.161, "architecture_confidence": 93.868, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.57, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 57.78, "deceleration": 88.17, "rotation_down": 27.35, "downward_expansion": 19.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.675967, 37.943267, 37.565803, 36.13932 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.8339, "trend_reference": 34.372163, "distance_from_trend": 0.129807, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.15315, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.484865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.999396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.263302, "excess_performance": 0.137677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129807, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079149, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.484865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.069994, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056667, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.263302, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.997806, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33370, "relative_activity": 0.518917, "balance": 2.997806, "dry_up": 0.662082, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061624, "annualized_volatility": 0.269776, "from_high_reference": -0.053524, "from_low_reference": 0.505254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.372163, "fair_value_reference": 26.15315, "structural_low": 27.41, "invalidation": "A 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25.446897, "relative_strength": 13.984375, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.003126, "energy": 59.450782, "activity_lines": [ 38.913627, 38.309091, 35.947916, 34.534801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 37.9282, "volume": 45797, "typical_volume": 66779.05, "trend": 33.223904, "fair_value": 25.569567, "relative_strength": 9.880492, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.413781, "energy": 53.921275, "activity_lines": [ 38.624713, 38.371558, 36.322931, 34.852979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.09, "volume": 49706, "typical_volume": 68012.6, "trend": 33.52018, "fair_value": 25.694116, "relative_strength": 11.340874, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.151466, "energy": 53.727808, "activity_lines": [ 38.80252, 38.590349, 36.773079, 35.231437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.78, "volume": 27575, "typical_volume": 67357.85, "trend": 33.73526, "fair_value": 25.804894, "relative_strength": 6.162117, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.032392, "energy": 34.853958, "activity_lines": [ 38.09364, 38.312073, 36.965179, 35.441748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.76, "volume": 33866, "typical_volume": 65811.95, "trend": 33.925917, "fair_value": 25.910772, "relative_strength": 6.460814, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.15104, "energy": 25.870501, "activity_lines": [ 37.49576, 38.037796, 37.125708, 35.636893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.01, "volume": 75495, "typical_volume": 65219.3, "trend": 34.130367, "fair_value": 26.023186, "relative_strength": 5.786353, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.27544, "energy": 19.940134, "activity_lines": [ 37.23588, 37.819702, 37.276189, 35.835866 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.8339, "volume": 33370, "typical_volume": 64306.95, "trend": 34.372163, "fair_value": 26.15315, "relative_strength": 6.999396, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.398953, "energy": 22.980851, "activity_lines": [ 37.675967, 37.943267, 37.565803, 36.13932 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }