{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8c0d67d-9115-4fd3-9372-6632589afed9", "symbol": "WALMEX", "name": "Wal-Mart de M\u00e9xico, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.667, "architecture_energy": 51.17, "architecture_maturity": 42.57, "architecture_confidence": 95.154, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 23.53, "upward_expansion": 8.07, "deceleration": 54.1, "rotation_down": 54.85, "downward_expansion": 81.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.423333, 49.770545, 51.405238, 52.774237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 49.599998, "trend_reference": 54.428334, "distance_from_trend": -0.08871, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 57.778463, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.141549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.863047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152137, "excess_performance": -0.09747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08871, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0495, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.141549, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152137, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.535848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65628847, "relative_activity": 0.818931, "balance": 0.535848, "dry_up": 0.878658, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045673, "annualized_volatility": 0.182947, "from_high_reference": -0.205429, "from_low_reference": 0.064149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.428334, "fair_value_reference": 57.778463, "structural_low": 46.610001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.004719, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002071, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.1003, "worst_return": -0.082298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002387, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.006864, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.156714, "worst_return": -0.044558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001884, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013555, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.115143, "worst_return": -0.044295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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49.148667, 50.069091, 52.104191, 53.40157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.25, "volume": 59721183, "typical_volume": 85390191.5, "trend": 54.688334, "fair_value": 57.860932, "relative_strength": -12.117918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.179279, "energy": 56.21937, "activity_lines": [ 49.374, 49.930909, 51.769334, 53.102516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.599998, "volume": 65628847, "typical_volume": 80139677.95, "trend": 54.428334, "fair_value": 57.778463, "relative_strength": -12.863047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.666759, "energy": 51.169774, "activity_lines": [ 49.423333, 49.770545, 51.405238, 52.774237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }