{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8c48e89-08eb-46b2-b0ed-dfe487455e56", "symbol": "MBH", "name": "Maggie Beer Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.252, "architecture_energy": 46.868, "architecture_maturity": 64.968, "architecture_confidence": 89.195, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.13, "rotation_up": 24.27, "upward_expansion": 7.99, "deceleration": 55.76, "rotation_down": 50.64, "downward_expansion": 74.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0688, 0.070036, 0.07241, 0.074499 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.062, "trend_reference": 0.077817, "distance_from_trend": -0.203256, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.07518, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.674687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234568, "excess_performance": -0.298274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203256, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094848, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175316, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158215, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246747, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30253, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234568, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.156984, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86273, "relative_activity": 0.280951, "balance": 0.156984, "dry_up": 0.553479, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08871, "annualized_volatility": 0.429747, "from_high_reference": -0.483333, "from_low_reference": 0.169811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.077817, "fair_value_reference": 0.07518, "structural_low": 0.061, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.028078, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.01963, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.557692, "worst_return": -0.320988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.11706, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.129885, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.341468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.246156, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.285208, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.4875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 0.078, "volume": 132785, "typical_volume": 457561.6, "trend": 0.080517, "fair_value": 0.076789, "relative_strength": 0.060387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.355236, "energy": 29.375688, "activity_lines": [ 0.073133, 0.072527, 0.074731, 0.07676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.073, "volume": 302278, "typical_volume": 429144.7, "trend": 0.079717, "fair_value": 0.076296, "relative_strength": -6.307283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.512462, "energy": 22.556208, "activity_lines": [ 0.073467, 0.072491, 0.074386, 0.076275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.069, "volume": 158503, "typical_volume": 381185.55, "trend": 0.078817, "fair_value": 0.075744, "relative_strength": -13.514367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.665553, "energy": 28.146312, "activity_lines": [ 0.072267, 0.071855, 0.073702, 0.075584 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.062, "volume": 86273, "typical_volume": 307075.25, "trend": 0.077817, "fair_value": 0.07518, "relative_strength": -24.674687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.25243, "energy": 46.868013, "activity_lines": [ 0.0688, 0.070036, 0.07241, 0.074499 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }