{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8c80faf-d7b2-4cdc-a2b8-98b495a912de", "symbol": "CSTM", "name": "Constellium Nv", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.033, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.418, "architecture_energy": 16.952, "architecture_maturity": 34.378, "architecture_confidence": 74.424, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.18, "rotation_up": 15.19, "upward_expansion": 42.01, "deceleration": 78.16, "rotation_down": 47.0, "downward_expansion": 40.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.732667, 29.654545, 30.877667, 30.018344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.44, "trend_reference": 28.433, "distance_from_trend": 0.035417, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.149038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.622125, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.823603, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.189976, "excess_performance": 0.064351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035417, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180674, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.622125, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.377172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.138236, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.484932, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.189976, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8334550, "relative_activity": 0.831354, "balance": 0.675737, "dry_up": 0.879134, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113069, "annualized_volatility": 0.426191, "from_high_reference": -0.204109, "from_low_reference": 1.254211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.433, "fair_value_reference": 18.149038, "structural_low": 22.03, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005495, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.023168, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142298, "worst_return": -0.158242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018578, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125654, "worst_return": -0.222826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.191099, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017591, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.612881, "worst_return": -0.409091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.224695, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.177602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.44699, "worst_return": -0.443182, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023389, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056456, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081522, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.148525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.224412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092511, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.340071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043344, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021468, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.035197, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005464, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.17, "volume": 2377321, "typical_volume": 3549423.5, "trend": 15.769667, "fair_value": 15.267756, "relative_strength": 12.346095, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"typical_volume": 10326643.8, "trend": 27.879333, "fair_value": 18.011731, "relative_strength": 19.762802, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.928107, "energy": 20.725384, "activity_lines": [ 29.088667, 30.741091, 31.206, 29.94129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.78, "volume": 10108678, "typical_volume": 10310128.75, "trend": 28.146333, "fair_value": 18.073077, "relative_strength": 12.253516, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.932951, "energy": 23.02733, "activity_lines": [ 28.500667, 29.997273, 30.970333, 29.934882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.44, "volume": 8334550, "typical_volume": 10025267.45, "trend": 28.433, "fair_value": 18.149038, "relative_strength": 13.823603, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.418079, "energy": 16.951919, "activity_lines": [ 28.732667, 29.654545, 30.877667, 30.018344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }