{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8cc25c2-0704-4730-9d2f-6af00bd9f59d", "symbol": "M05", "name": "MTQ Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.343, "architecture_energy": 46.589, "architecture_maturity": 18.976, "architecture_confidence": 93.521, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.78, "rotation_up": 17.48, "upward_expansion": 7.14, "deceleration": 46.1, "rotation_down": 55.48, "downward_expansion": 78.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.218667, 0.219727, 0.224214, 0.226796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.22, "trend_reference": 0.2285, "distance_from_trend": -0.037199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.270328, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.186174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.627103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06383, "excess_performance": -0.218665, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.186174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013738, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052234, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.607254, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170600, "relative_activity": 0.91335, "balance": 0.607254, "dry_up": 0.510078, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038462, "annualized_volatility": 0.189759, "from_high_reference": -0.254237, "from_low_reference": 0.047619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2285, "fair_value_reference": 0.270328, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.000576, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.142859, "worst_return": -0.106771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.063344, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.121951, "worst_return": -0.132843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029851, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.082617, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.159998, "worst_return": -0.148825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.080732, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019605, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125001, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075141, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.321061, "volume": 443300, "typical_volume": 1399520.0, "trend": 0.258917, "fair_value": 0.212527, "relative_strength": 37.95937, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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0.2305, "fair_value": 0.272691, "relative_strength": -26.24318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.976071, "energy": 51.807215, "activity_lines": [ 0.22, 0.222636, 0.227452, 0.229011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.215, "volume": 71900, "typical_volume": 199020.0, "trend": 0.229667, "fair_value": 0.271833, "relative_strength": -26.55701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.157927, "energy": 67.378249, "activity_lines": [ 0.218, 0.220727, 0.226, 0.228011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.22, "volume": 42600, "typical_volume": 195880.0, "trend": 0.229167, "fair_value": 0.271125, "relative_strength": -24.600766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.510585, "energy": 52.060983, "activity_lines": [ 0.218, 0.220091, 0.225095, 0.227387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.22, "volume": 170600, "typical_volume": 186785.0, "trend": 0.2285, "fair_value": 0.270328, "relative_strength": -24.627103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.342707, "energy": 46.589068, "activity_lines": [ 0.218667, 0.219727, 0.224214, 0.226796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }