{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8d120a3-c0aa-491b-aba2-5b879c1e40f9", "symbol": "2454", "name": "MediaTek Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.988, "architecture_energy": 34.749, "architecture_maturity": 62.148, "architecture_confidence": 93.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.94, "rotation_up": 37.91, "upward_expansion": 68.23, "deceleration": 93.54, "rotation_down": 27.36, "downward_expansion": 8.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 3879.0, 3870.349565, 3784.521152, 3384.508826 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4210.0, "trend_reference": 2850.822921, "distance_from_trend": 0.476767, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1468.273075, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.867314, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 49.274158, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.476698, "excess_performance": 1.035326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.476767, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.437296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.867314, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137711, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.492742, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021682, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.476698, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.194248, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38338854, "relative_activity": 0.727329, "balance": 1.194248, "dry_up": 0.854167, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157695, "annualized_volatility": 0.831114, "from_high_reference": -0.147856, "from_low_reference": 2.820578 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2850.822921, "fair_value_reference": 1468.273075, "structural_low": 1421.50662, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.097744, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.038314, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.78157, "worst_return": -0.162609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.10333, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00376, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.863481, "worst_return": -0.266956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.160886, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.041598, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.428356, "worst_return": -0.346062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 52364992.3, "trend": 2757.541789, "fair_value": 1445.326404, "relative_strength": 44.917886, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.019941, "energy": 21.585497, "activity_lines": [ 3709.0, 3819.814995, 3696.984405, 3290.801844 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 4210.0, "volume": 38338854, "typical_volume": 52711817.2, "trend": 2850.822921, "fair_value": 1468.273075, "relative_strength": 49.274158, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.988468, "energy": 34.74884, "activity_lines": [ 3879.0, 3870.349565, 3784.521152, 3384.508826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }