{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8d616c0-5e7c-4624-b4d0-ad068a3508d6", "symbol": "600613", "name": "Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.299, "architecture_energy": 32.593, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.537, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.82, "rotation_up": 27.67, "upward_expansion": 17.97, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 29.42, "downward_expansion": 63.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.914667, 4.840301, 5.027819, 5.294778 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.09, "trend_reference": 5.634733, "distance_from_trend": -0.096674, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.335448, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.99766, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.192063, "excess_performance": -0.14886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096674, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090804, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082984, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149977, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035093, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192063, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.683908, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39784000, "relative_activity": 0.811172, "balance": 0.683908, "dry_up": 1.053317, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06523, "annualized_volatility": 0.303053, "from_high_reference": -0.324037, "from_low_reference": 0.14382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.634733, "fair_value_reference": 6.335448, "structural_low": 4.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.012091, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.001379, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.319846, "worst_return": -0.160767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.167178, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.098904, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.765233, "worst_return": -0.165937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.112988, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.038715, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.412186, "worst_return": -0.218501, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 4.7, "volume": 50568774, "typical_volume": 49272420.05, "trend": 5.710067, "fair_value": 6.354818, "relative_strength": -20.290988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.203544, "energy": 55.422926, "activity_lines": [ 4.758667, 4.781935, 5.0996, 5.383647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.91, "volume": 40356227, "typical_volume": 49546589.4, "trend": 5.6674, "fair_value": 6.344741, "relative_strength": -16.461058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.414087, "energy": 44.301998, "activity_lines": [ 4.821333, 4.790732, 5.051733, 5.33203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.09, "volume": 39784000, "typical_volume": 49045112.4, "trend": 5.634733, "fair_value": 6.335448, "relative_strength": -14.99766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.299203, "energy": 32.592852, "activity_lines": [ 4.914667, 4.840301, 5.027819, 5.294778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }