{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8db5a93-21bd-40b2-a294-b4892d385f4e", "symbol": "TRX", "name": "TRX Gold Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.783, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.089, "architecture_energy": 47.444, "architecture_maturity": 54.983, "architecture_confidence": 70.538, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.32, "rotation_up": 25.99, "upward_expansion": 14.73, "deceleration": 65.76, "rotation_down": 48.91, "downward_expansion": 76.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.201333, 1.194, 1.329857, 1.498022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.44, "trend_reference": 1.686, "distance_from_trend": -0.145907, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.795897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.809278, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.808438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.33945, "excess_performance": -0.459871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145907, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022025, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.809278, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.524751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048084, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.424883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.33945, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.715495, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 850200, "relative_activity": 1.078482, "balance": 0.715495, "dry_up": 0.81587, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131944, "annualized_volatility": 0.765556, "from_high_reference": -0.616, "from_low_reference": 2.130435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.686, "fair_value_reference": 0.795897, "structural_low": 0.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.009434, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": 0.016041, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.173077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01541, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045355, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.22, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.08, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.017778, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.146341, "worst_return": -0.240741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 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"2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.8125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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1.296909, 1.496, 1.634538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.0, "volume": 639100, "typical_volume": 1149065.0, "trend": 1.691333, "fair_value": 0.782436, "relative_strength": -30.253535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.738326, "energy": 89.428569, "activity_lines": [ 1.128, 1.226364, 1.42981, 1.589398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.1, "volume": 717400, "typical_volume": 1008660.0, "trend": 1.684667, "fair_value": 0.78609, "relative_strength": -23.98452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.584588, "energy": 82.922303, "activity_lines": [ 1.105333, 1.187091, 1.38019, 1.551247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 366000, "typical_volume": 918560.0, "trend": 1.680333, "fair_value": 0.789936, "relative_strength": -24.155865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.596779, "energy": 77.267056, "activity_lines": [ 1.092667, 1.156, 1.33619, 1.513527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.44, "volume": 850200, "typical_volume": 788330.0, "trend": 1.686, "fair_value": 0.795897, "relative_strength": -4.808438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.089225, "energy": 47.443839, "activity_lines": [ 1.201333, 1.194, 1.329857, 1.498022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }