{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8dcabf0-ff85-4f6e-a21b-dcbedc940391", "symbol": "600381", "name": "Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 63.412, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.941, "architecture_energy": 23.3, "architecture_maturity": 57.765, "architecture_confidence": 90.21, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.54, "rotation_up": 17.53, "upward_expansion": 40.15, "deceleration": 83.94, "rotation_down": 46.56, "downward_expansion": 40.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.974, 4.308545, 4.448762, 4.193677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.27, "trend_reference": 3.932667, "distance_from_trend": 0.085777, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.632244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0782, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.67212, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.216524, "excess_performance": 0.259728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085777, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076612, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006721, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088775, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.59713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53324382, "relative_activity": 1.372556, "balance": 0.59713, "dry_up": 1.078997, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15871, "annualized_volatility": 0.885731, "from_high_reference": -0.268836, "from_low_reference": 0.721774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.932667, "fair_value_reference": 4.632244, "structural_low": 2.48, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.048921, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.029668, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.850467, "worst_return": -0.150968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.14138, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.137898, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.570093, "worst_return": -0.161125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.211174, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.259627, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.285347, "worst_return": 0.137, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.286645, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.216129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041379, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025522, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007533, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128968, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 8.9, "volume": 52633459, "typical_volume": 35609556.95, "trend": 9.335667, "fair_value": 8.83109, "relative_strength": -12.922431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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44.084806, "energy": 29.915873, "activity_lines": [ 4.841333, 5.007636, 4.505667, 4.200215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.2, "volume": 27057630, "typical_volume": 36459865.0, "trend": 3.985667, "fair_value": 4.711859, "relative_strength": 2.641172, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.648316, "energy": 24.772372, "activity_lines": [ 4.586667, 4.860545, 4.523, 4.213505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.77, "volume": 30212040, "typical_volume": 36633084.15, "trend": 3.963667, "fair_value": 4.685577, "relative_strength": -8.780973, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.163933, "energy": 20.338889, "activity_lines": [ 4.265333, 4.634545, 4.493667, 4.199591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.54, "volume": 57083856, "typical_volume": 37801476.8, "trend": 3.938, "fair_value": 4.657692, "relative_strength": -14.411477, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.259828, "energy": 28.516957, "activity_lines": [ 3.952, 4.394727, 4.438667, 4.172258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.27, "volume": 53324382, "typical_volume": 38850410.9, "trend": 3.932667, "fair_value": 4.632244, "relative_strength": 0.67212, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.940984, "energy": 23.300161, "activity_lines": [ 3.974, 4.308545, 4.448762, 4.193677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }