{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e8dd11e3-5426-4d7a-bc32-11b906b78474",
    "symbol": "HARDWYN",
    "name": "Hardwyn India Limited",
    "exchange": "NSI",
    "country": "IN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NSEI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -34.03,
    "architecture_energy": 71.882,
    "architecture_maturity": 26.693,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.147,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.83,
        "rotation_up": 16.68,
        "upward_expansion": 33.95,
        "deceleration": 46.24,
        "rotation_down": 74.04,
        "downward_expansion": 58.95
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        11.700571,
        13.706909,
        15.348782,
        15.254473
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 11.26,
    "trend_reference": 14.693381,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.233669,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 14.927527,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245689,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -13.94951,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.077049,
    "excess_performance": -0.03334,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.233669,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063087,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.245689,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.386364,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.139495,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.688891,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.077049,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.399825,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8650960,
      "relative_activity": 0.31075,
      "balance": 0.399825,
      "dry_up": 1.136952,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.179728,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.722432,
      "from_high_reference": -0.442574,
      "from_low_reference": 0.45023
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.693381,
      "fair_value_reference": 14.927527,
      "structural_low": 10.042857,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.108056,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.101994,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.067669,
        "worst_return": -0.148444,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.253535,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.286215,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.073985,
        "worst_return": -0.433085,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.04193,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.160519,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.243609,
        "worst_return": -0.32747,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.525895,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.579303,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.525895,
        "worst_return": -0.525895,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-03-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.2,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-03-29",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010526,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.003185,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015721,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.108101,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.22332,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.205751,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.193548,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.103158,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.01405,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.221429,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.246472,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001212,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002278,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 26714351.5,
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        "fair_value": 15.112454,
        "relative_strength": -12.282929,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 18.422926,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 27279039.25,
        "trend": 14.81,
        "fair_value": 15.048835,
        "relative_strength": -10.287585,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -39.261481,
        "energy": 41.092928,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 11.27,
        "volume": 13284984,
        "typical_volume": 27706442.0,
        "trend": 14.762809,
        "fair_value": 14.988622,
        "relative_strength": -12.964441,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -38.23556,
        "energy": 64.376862,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.56,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 11.26,
        "volume": 8650960,
        "typical_volume": 27839011.95,
        "trend": 14.693381,
        "fair_value": 14.927527,
        "relative_strength": -13.94951,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.030207,
        "energy": 71.881603,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}