{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8e61bd3-66d2-4d6e-8daa-89148005a51a", "symbol": "CNCB", "name": "China Construction Bank Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.468, "architecture_energy": 79.315, "architecture_maturity": 21.008, "architecture_confidence": 59.857, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.48, "rotation_up": 77.13, "upward_expansion": 69.66, "deceleration": 20.83, "rotation_down": 16.0, "downward_expansion": 28.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.97246, 0.906552, 0.849054, 0.848606 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.967, "trend_reference": 0.850038, "distance_from_trend": 0.137596, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.441659, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.189471, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.447473, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108945, "excess_performance": -0.065302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137596, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025306, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.189471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246299, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004475, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1675, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108945, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044791, "annualized_volatility": 0.550643, "from_high_reference": -0.066602, "from_low_reference": 0.582664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.850038, "fair_value_reference": 0.441659, "structural_low": 0.676791, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.068508, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042627, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.068508, "worst_return": 0.068508, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-07-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.941867, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069651, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 3.915664, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.419874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070885, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07634, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.403123, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035489, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.229015, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation 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"fair_value": 0.424083, "relative_strength": 0.136203, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.316479, "energy": 41.904307, "activity_lines": [ 0.858855, 0.803049, 0.804401, 0.820141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9785, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 0.840352, "fair_value": 0.429869, "relative_strength": 4.916736, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.526882, "energy": 57.809595, "activity_lines": [ 0.913359, 0.840426, 0.818979, 0.829356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.0176, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 0.845872, "fair_value": 0.43592, "relative_strength": 8.95527, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.533589, "energy": 84.352458, "activity_lines": [ 0.962667, 0.880577, 0.836745, 0.840791 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.967, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 0.850038, "fair_value": 0.441659, "relative_strength": 0.447473, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.468176, "energy": 79.314993, "activity_lines": [ 0.97246, 0.906552, 0.849054, 0.848606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }