{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e8ee3d53-28f1-4ec2-a663-42eaf3a29eca",
    "symbol": "PLUG",
    "name": "Plug Power Inc.",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 83.642,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -27.357,
    "architecture_energy": 52.358,
    "architecture_maturity": 18.779,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.986,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 25.07,
        "rotation_up": 15.27,
        "upward_expansion": 25.51,
        "deceleration": 51.27,
        "rotation_down": 68.96,
        "downward_expansion": 55.18
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        37.081334,
        39.979455,
        46.417524,
        46.120151
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 37.490002,
    "trend_reference": 44.617333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.159744,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 50.882821,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.263209,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -16.234476,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.047207,
    "excess_performance": 0.101874,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.159744,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021537,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.263209,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.143289,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.162345,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.463425,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047207,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.110254,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 19531,
      "relative_activity": 0.409496,
      "balance": 3.110254,
      "dry_up": 0.504846,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.210436,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.755274,
      "from_high_reference": -0.547222,
      "from_low_reference": 0.414717
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 44.617333,
      "fair_value_reference": 50.882821,
      "structural_low": 30.129999,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.11796,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.1059,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.256927,
        "worst_return": -0.367853,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.064263,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.180153,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.062343,
        "worst_return": -0.568507,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.311002,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.423525,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.131409,
        "worst_return": -0.490596,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.387346,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.550866,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": -0.110115,
        "worst_return": -0.664577,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.11796,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.215453,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.144118,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.422143,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.041118,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.175343,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.14117,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.027078,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.021579,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.21175,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.192266,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.210687,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.126818,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027123,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 148.0,
        "volume": 109943,
        "typical_volume": 30916.1,
        "trend": 197.707,
        "fair_value": 480.751159,
        "relative_strength": -47.456706,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -50.397704,
        "energy": 31.084526,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 44151.3,
        "trend": 43.017667,
        "fair_value": 61.840577,
        "relative_strength": 37.443051,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 51.277843,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 42510.25,
        "trend": 42.626333,
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        "relative_strength": 30.108036,
        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 65700.75,
        "trend": 42.716667,
        "fair_value": 60.891474,
        "relative_strength": 59.708464,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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        "direction": 91.479429,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 67336.2,
        "trend": 43.086667,
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        "relative_strength": 54.325077,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 67853.3,
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        "relative_strength": 56.272367,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 67496.0,
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        "relative_strength": 32.478356,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 2210,
        "typical_volume": 59362.65,
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        "fair_value": 56.75468,
        "relative_strength": -1.192686,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 23.105718,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.88,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 20,
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        "trend": 45.006,
        "fair_value": 55.877051,
        "relative_strength": 0.899526,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 59212.85,
        "trend": 44.880667,
        "fair_value": 54.821987,
        "relative_strength": -12.285295,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.600618,
        "energy": 34.682927,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 38.419998,
        "volume": 31779,
        "typical_volume": 58844.3,
        "trend": 44.859,
        "fair_value": 53.722115,
        "relative_strength": -13.557312,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.18701,
        "energy": 37.89912,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.513999,
          46.805272,
          49.876667,
          47.701011
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 36.5,
        "volume": 11632,
        "typical_volume": 49712.45,
        "trend": 44.826,
        "fair_value": 52.672115,
        "relative_strength": -17.463701,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -33.819989,
        "energy": 55.959033,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.139333,
          43.970727,
          48.702952,
          47.161721
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 35.880001,
        "volume": 33373,
        "typical_volume": 49406.7,
        "trend": 44.688333,
        "fair_value": 51.63609,
        "relative_strength": -19.689655,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.204805,
        "energy": 59.967863,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.571333,
          41.559454,
          47.477334,
          46.584559
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 37.490002,
        "volume": 19531,
        "typical_volume": 47695.2,
        "trend": 44.617333,
        "fair_value": 50.882821,
        "relative_strength": -16.234476,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.357066,
        "energy": 52.357622,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.081334,
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          46.120151
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}