{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8f10c30-eddd-4b97-bce0-6c623d4674ed", "symbol": "2450", "name": "Senao International Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 82.91, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.561, "architecture_energy": 11.991, "architecture_maturity": 29.102, "architecture_confidence": 72.046, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.15, "rotation_up": 18.35, "upward_expansion": 50.24, "deceleration": 89.84, "rotation_down": 34.3, "downward_expansion": 20.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.493333, 28.664818, 28.659714, 28.523736 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.299999, "trend_reference": 28.302917, "distance_from_trend": -0.000103, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.32359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066733, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.249573, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030778, "excess_performance": -0.410594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015424, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066733, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015847, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.282496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050234, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030778, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.800669, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 720407, "relative_activity": 0.703476, "balance": 0.800669, "dry_up": 0.656238, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026665, "annualized_volatility": 0.123045, "from_high_reference": -0.069079, "from_low_reference": 0.054495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.302917, "fair_value_reference": 30.32359, "structural_low": 27.265, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018547, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.015033, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.048558, "worst_return": -0.018813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034003, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081379, "worst_return": 0.031621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.052381, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009219, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081379, "worst_return": 0.023384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00797, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019802, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011445, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075691, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.020427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015652, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 31.036335, "volume": 1695025, "typical_volume": 1128845.85, "trend": 28.344315, "fair_value": 24.762549, "relative_strength": 6.705562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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590105, "typical_volume": 1003617.7, "trend": 28.24025, "fair_value": 30.351546, "relative_strength": -24.493647, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.620735, "energy": 16.142399, "activity_lines": [ 28.796667, 28.888409, 28.701131, 28.517946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.299999, "volume": 897456, "typical_volume": 1018169.8, "trend": 28.27, "fair_value": 30.336746, "relative_strength": -26.610186, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.053623, "energy": 12.915984, "activity_lines": [ 28.616666, 28.776091, 28.681417, 28.521801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.299999, "volume": 720407, "typical_volume": 1024067.4, "trend": 28.302917, "fair_value": 30.32359, "relative_strength": -28.249573, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.561144, "energy": 11.991162, "activity_lines": [ 28.493333, 28.664818, 28.659714, 28.523736 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }