{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8f1db5d-3d27-4f6b-ba0c-fe215f16bb2d", "symbol": "RGR", "name": "Sturm Ruger & Company Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 49.474, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.688, "architecture_energy": 38.396, "architecture_maturity": 31.836, "architecture_confidence": 59.038, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.74, "rotation_up": 22.35, "upward_expansion": 14.99, "deceleration": 47.26, "rotation_down": 54.31, "downward_expansion": 54.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.554, 37.971091, 38.79048, 39.012955 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.11, "trend_reference": 38.935676, "distance_from_trend": -0.04689, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.802869, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.884843, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027176, "excess_performance": -0.152801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04689, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053344, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067655, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02171, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06151, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.782645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 615111, "relative_activity": 0.927144, "balance": 0.782645, "dry_up": 0.837051, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05881, "annualized_volatility": 0.21098, "from_high_reference": -0.225522, "from_low_reference": 0.316214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.935676, "fair_value_reference": 39.802869, "structural_low": 35.977115, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011026, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.015065, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.08413, "worst_return": -0.061582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.108257, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.13454, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.073919, "worst_return": -0.219352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.081155, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.123577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.080706, "worst_return": -0.133312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 39.999258, "relative_strength": -6.266992, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.123197, "energy": 25.750781, "activity_lines": [ 38.15, 38.533818, 39.270328, 39.23589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.17, "volume": 728118, "typical_volume": 686767.25, "trend": 38.932082, "fair_value": 39.899912, "relative_strength": -9.81254, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.926622, "energy": 27.642296, "activity_lines": [ 37.823333, 38.231818, 39.030983, 39.130508 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.11, "volume": 615111, "typical_volume": 663446.8, "trend": 38.935676, "fair_value": 39.802869, "relative_strength": -12.884843, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.687858, "energy": 38.395744, "activity_lines": [ 37.554, 37.971091, 38.79048, 39.012955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }